How Dictatorship Compounds Tragedy

When you can’t get real news, you can only speculate. We can choose to ignore the grainiest theories about why Kim didn’t get his picture taken with Hu, but the North Koreans don’t have that choice. But it’s not enough that they were victims of this terrible accident; soon, heads will roll. Coup or not, the Dear Leader will see one, and so will many common citizens.

He will also try to blame the outside world . . . in all probability, America. It would be the height of magnanamity if President Bush would offer to the assistance of U.S. Army medics to help the injured. If the Norks refuse, we should not be afraid to tell the people of both Koreas. Just as in Iran, the suffering of ordinary people should transcend politics. Furthermore, it can show them what kind of society we really are. This is not just a chance to heal wounds, it’s a chance to erase lies. But of course, that’s why Kim will refuse.

Fox has actually done the best job with this story. Some of the better raw speculation on whether this was a coup:
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They realize the system depends so much on him and the system is so bad and punitive that some people could have just taken the situation into their own hands.”
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This from James Lilley, formerly U.S. Ambassador to China and South Korea, and no fool. One interesting detail is that “Kim [Jong-Il] apparently had a soft spot for Ryongchon, which is about 35 miles from the Chinese border. He often visited the town and its machine-tool factory.” John Wolfstahl of the Carnegie Endowment reflects my own thoughts: “If it was an assassination attempt, it was a poor one,” noting the nine-hour difference between when Kim passed through and the explosion. Wolfstahl also sees the seeds for a purge. Paranoid states eat their young for less. This very fear could trigger some unpredictable and dangerous reactions.