Carnival of the Revolutions, 29 August 2005

Welcome to the Carnival of the Revolutions edition for August 29th. Hosting next week’s edition (Sept. 5) will be Thinking-East; next up (Sept. 12) is Quid Nimis. Updates added, typos fixed.

East Asia and the Pacific Rim

Burma: Did the government’s army use chemical weapons against Karen rebels earlier this year? The Jubilee Campaign, a Christian human rights NGO, prints an editorial by Lord David Alton, a member of the British House of Lords. Publius reports on new rumors of a coup in Rangoon.

China: Publius looks at growing income inequality in China and the parallel rise in unrest that is worrying the regime’s leaders. Simon World has a fascinating post about Chinese and Indian political scientists’ forecasts for both nations as emerging powers. D.J. McGuire at China-e-Lobby sees a papal capitulation to the Chinese authorities, who have an uncharacteristic enthusiasm for competition when it comes to Catholic Churches. He also reminds us that it has now been 56 years since the leaders of the formerly independent East Turkestan were killed in a mysterious plane crash on the way to Beijing for talks with Mao, who responded by sending in the Chinese army.

China is having an oil crisis; just have a look at this photograph from the New York Times. Simon World looks at the reasons behind it, and finds that government interference has compounded market pressures. How can this fail to have a significant impact on China’s economy? The Peking Duck has more.

Quid Nimis reports on the strange case of the Gitmo Uigurs whom the U.S. military captured in Afghanistan. The military doesn’t think the men are dangerous (really? It’s not exactly a short stroll from Hotan to Konduz–it’s fair to wonder what they were doing there) and doesn’t want to return to China for fear of severe treatment.

Simon World looks at the problems of being an honest journalist in China, as does Peking Duck.

Indonesia: Islamic extremists are stepping up their persecution of Christians in West Java, reports the Jubilee Campaign. In one case, they showed up during a Sunday service at a church that had been operating since 1956 and ordered the service to end and the church to close permanently.

Japan: Mutant Frog has an interesting Taiwanese take on the upcoming election between Junichiro Koizumi, who has moved his country closer to the United States, and his opponent in the Democratic Party of Japan.

Nepal: In a deeply troubling development, Publius reports that the king’s repressive response to a brutal Maoist insurgency has driven the peaceful opposition into the arms of the Maoists.

North Korea: Each party had its own way of trying to set a positive atmosphere going in to the recent six-nation talks. This week, we learned that North Korea’s was to restart its reactor at Yongbyon. Late word from Beijing was that the six nations were on the verge of agreeing to a joint statement of very general principles for a plan to “denuclearize” the North. Update: The Chosun Ilbo reports that the North is refusing to return to the talks until mid-September at the earliest, to protest the appointment of a U.S. Special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea. Scroll down for details.

Does North Korea have a “right” to a “peaceful” nuclear program? The legal support for that claim is dubious, but that North Korean demand helped deadlock the last session of six-nation disarmament talks. South Korea’s Unification Minister sided with the North Koreans, but the Foreign Minister later backpedalled. The U.S. position, which had been clear in the wake of the talks, was thrown into confusion when the American negotiator said that the issue would not be a “show-stopper.” Oh? North Korea’s specific demand has been for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, which would mean reactors, fuel rods, and other things with which the North can’t be trusted.

Another potential show-stopper is North Korea’s refusal to admit that it has a covert uranium enrichment program. This week, Pakistan publicly admitted selling North Korea the centrifuges it uses for the program, in what would seem to be a calculated and negotiated leak to undermine North Korea’s denials.

What if the talks fail? In an interview exclusively for this blog, noted Korea expert Nicholas Eberstadt claims they already have, and discusses economic consequences that the U.S. could impose in response. Will those be enough to supply the missing deterrent from U.S. policy toward North Korea, in case North Korea won’t cease to threaten other nations or its own people? While the North Korean rulers probably don’t take military threats seriously, given the number of American soldiers in their artillery range, they may be less cavalier about outside appeals to the legimitacy of their rule.

While any North Korean resistance movement is probably years from challenging North Korea’s tyranny, some early steps toward encouraging dissenters have come from President Bush, Freedom House, Natan Sharanksy, and the U.S. Congress, via the ADVANCE Democracy Act and the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004 (see sidebar at upper right). Last week, the White House finally nominated Jay Lefkowitz as U.S. Special Envoy on Human Rights in North Korea, a position created by the NKHRA last fall.

North Korea is the world’s most opaque society, and getting information about life on the inside is exceedingly difficult. Your new must-read source is the DailyNK, an online journal written by and for North Korean defectors, with help from sympathetic writers in South Korea and elsewhere (full disclosure: I’m one of them). Its recent scoops include an interview with a starving North Korean soldier, an expose of Kim Jong Il’s sex life, North Korea’s secret house churches, the rising use of cell phones despite a government ban, and a report on North Korea’s drug problem.

Another of our best sources of information about North Korea is Professor Andrei Lankov, who lived in North Korea as a Soviet diplomat for a number of years. He has several fine posts at NKZone, including this one, about North Korea’s strictly controlled markets. NKZone contributor Michael Rank looks at North Korea’s state religion.

The feds recently rolled up a Chinese gang that was marketing drugs and North Korean “supernotes,” and was planning to smuggle in heavy weapons, too. What makes the story a must-read is just how the feds executed the bust.

South Korea: A once-staunch American ally continues to drift toward irrational exuberance for the message of the North Korean regime. That exuberance has come at a high price for free expression in the South. A new survey of South Korean youth adds to a growing body of statistical evidence that anti-Americanism in South Korean is running near Middle Eastern levels (when will the U.S. government launch a Korean al-Hurrah?). In another setback for civil liberties in South Korea, the police appear to have been too busy checking themselves for rectal polyps to prevent pro-North Korean thugs from intimidating and threatening Radio FreeNK, an Internet broadcasting service by North Korean defectors for a secret audience in their homeland. The threats may now force Radio FreeNK to shut down, in what may well be an example of vicarious censorship by withdrawal of state protection.

At least the Korean left didn’t follow through on its vow to tear down the statue of Douglas MacArthur; OFK readers recently caused the Christian Science Monitor to correct a report that an organ of the South Korea government supported that position, too. The reporter’s humility and willingness to correct the record form a strong contrast to some other journalists’ recent behavior.

North Korea has admitted to kidnapping Japanese citizens, but what of the hundreds of South Koreans kidnapped by the North, or the thousands of POWs held by the North for sixty years after it agreed to return them in the 1953 armistice? Meekly, haltingly, the South Korean government is starting to inquire about their status. Despite years of South Korean appeasement, the Lost Nomad reports that the North has not been receptive.

If it bothers you that South Korea’s peace and prosperity are defended by American soldiers, but that many South Koreans bar members of the U.S. military from their businesses–and now, even from a public sporting event–you can show your support for our service members by supporting this blogger’s complaint the South Korean Human Rights Commission on their behalf. Given that the HRC considers restricting adolescents’ hairstyles to be a human rights violation, such an expansive interpretation of “human rights” would seem to include discrimination in public accomodations based on race and national origin.

Not all the news from South Korea is bad. The current anti-U.S. government is so weakened that it has improbably asked the opposition to form a coalition, something that would require amending the South Korean Constitution.

A nascent political movement in South Korea, known by its supporters as “The New Right,” breaks from conservative South Korea’s authoritarian past and progressive South Korea’s reflexive appeasement to challenge South Korea’s nearly universal silence about North Korea’s horrific human rights record. New Right legislators, led by former political prisoner and rising star Kim Moon-Soo, recently introduced a South Korean version of a North Korean Human Rights Act, although it’s sadly unlikely that the bill has enough support to pass this year.

Philippines: Asia Pundit has a roundup of news from the PI, including news links on the latest bombing in Basilan. When will President Arroyo finally stop occupying Iraq and Palestine?

Australia will start requiring Islamic schools to teach Australian values, according to Stefania.

South Asia

Pakistan: Gateway Pundit reports that Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf will address the American Jewish Committee in New York, and that the Pakistani rape victim whose case inspired an international outcry has helped two women win elected office in her village.

Bangladesh: Fair Vote Watch looks at the developing evidence that the recent wave of bombings was inspired and funded by international terrorists.

Middle East

Hate Watch: Winds of Change has the latest.

Media: You’ll never guess what channel they’re watching in Cairo and other places in the Middle East these days.

Egypt: For the first time anyone can remember, state-controlled TV in Egypt allowed an opposition candidate’s criticism of Hosni Mubarak on the air. The Big Pharoah wonders whether this for real, or just simulated balance. Freedom For Egyptians thinks the entire election is a fraud, but definitely give this blog a serious look before you conclude that it’s mere conspiratoral cynicism. FFE’s lockean demand for individual rights and courage in questioning the demonization of The Usual Suspects (principally, Israel) is welcome relief from the usual al-Jazeera perspective. HT: Gateway Pundit.

For a wider angle view, don’t miss this interesting Washington Post video report on Egypt’s pro-democracy movement. It’s not entirely good news; the Muslim Brotherhood is by far the strongest opposition movement.

Iran: Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran looks at why Iran will never give up its determined pursuit of nuclear weapons, and how that pursuit might yet bring the United States and Old Europe together (if Gerhard Schroeder’s reelection campaign doesn’t tear them apart first). He also has a must-read update summarizing the major developments relating to the pro-democracy movement, human rights, and diplomacy. Stefania at Free Thoughts reports on more bad news for the Iranian people: violent clashes and public executions.

Iraq: As negotiators in Iraq haggled (but thus far, did not fight) over a draft constitution, bloggers speculated on what the parties sought, and whether the draft would be good for Iraq. Update: As of Monday a.m., it appears that the Sunnis did not agree with to the draft proposed by Shi’ite and Kurdish delegates.

The invaluable Iraq the Model discusses what the Sunnis and everyone else want. Publius doesn’t agree that the dispute is one of anti-federalist Sunnis versus pro-federalist Shi’ites, as most often portrayed, but a question of factions that control militias trying to weaken the central government to the point of impotence. Writing in the New York Times, David Brooks asks what is so wrong with that, and notes that Iraq’s religious leaders have rejected the theocratic Iranian model in favor of one-person, one-vote. Michael Barone reminds Americans that Iraqis might not necessarily make the same choices Americans would make, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not building as free a society as can be expected under the circumstances.

A parallel debate concerns whether the draft constitution’s provision that no law may controvert the principles of Islam (nor can any law controvert democracy, meaning both terms will be subject to vastly differing interpretations) means de facto theocracy in more conservative areas. Stephania at Free Thoughts is very worried about the imposition of shar’ia in Iraq. Publius cites the provisions in question and does a line-by-line comparison to similar provisions in the Afghan Constitution. Alenda Lux picks up on the same line of thought, and asks why the New York Times did not have the same reaction in the Afghan case, which resulted in neither a return to Taliban rule nor the overnight transformation of a feudal society into Wisteria Lane. Dean Esmay attacks comparisons of the draft constitution to Iran’s, arguing that Iran’s Constitution gives the mullahs far more inherent authority. Quid Nimis has one last suggestion to encourage a compromise: “Let’s lock the Iraqi parliament in a room with a bunch of Spanish mimes and tell them they can’t leave ’til we have a constitution. Cruel, I know, but these are tough times.

Gateway Pundit reports that some die-hard neo-Ba’athists in Baquoba and a Sunni Arab district of Kirkuk held small pro-Saddam, anti-Constitution demonstrations. While the demonstrations received predictable press attention, turnout was limited to a few hundred people in each district, both of which were once key bases of Ba’athist support. It’s also likely that rejectionist sheiks encouraged the demonstrations to enhance their leverage at the bargaining table.

Over on Tech Central Station, Michael Fumento reports on the rebuilding of Fallujah–a place we never seem to hear about these days, probably because things aren’t going badly enough to be newsworthy. On the subject of rebuilding, Strategy Page has some advice on how not to train Iraqi security forces, and the Signaleer has a compendium of good news from Iraq. Arthur Chrenkoff, again telling us a story that traditional media aren’t, looks at evidence that voter turnout may be enthusiastic in areas that boycotted January’s election. The Idiom has some photos of Iraqi teens that suggest the makings of a modest social revolution.

Michael Yon is in Mosul, Iraq, writing the best blog that ever was. Yon, who embedded himself with Deuce Four, a Styker battalion in Mosul, Iraq, has no budget (except our tips) and no journalistic training, and yet also has better coverage of the battlefront than any newspaper, magazine, or network on earth. With his crisp, dry writing and his easy interaction with soldiers that clearly benefits from his own military background, Yon has made himself into the Ernie Pyle of our time, writing for an unserved market of Americans who want to know how their soldiers are fighting the terrorist enemy. He does so by bringing us back reports like this, photographs like this, and video like this that the rest of the media, for whatever reason, are not. This week, Yon has published his most breaktaking dispatch yet, describing the circumstances that caused him to pick up a weapon for the first time. You are left wondering where we find men like these, and whether the courage of the American people to get through another day of watching the evening news will equal their courage to get through IEDs, snipers, and mortar fire. I have little doubt that they would if they could read more reports like Yon’s, whose observations seem far more newsworthy than, say, Cindy Sheehan’s view that the terrorists are “freedom fighters.”

Another brave journalist who tried to give balanced reports of both good and bad news in Iraq was Steven Vincent, who was murdered by Shi’ite thugs near Basra recently. Middle East “expert” Juan Cole, attempting to rationalize the murder, took a beating from Vincent’s widow (who, of course, speaks with what Maureen Down calls “absolute moral authority”). Leaving Cole’s warped logic aside for a moment, some of his factual misunderstandings seem, well, understandable. An apology should have ended it, but Cole’s arrogant response to Mrs. Vincent (via Dean Esmay) was much worse than saying nothing at all.

Israel / Palestine: Alenda Lux tells us why the Gaza withdrawal won’t bring peace, in a word: Hamas. I like James Lileks’s take, but then again, I almost always do.

Saudi Arabia: Austin Bay links to a Strategy Page report (subscription required) on Al-Qaeda’s loss of its top leader and 15 others. The report also mentions the narrowly failed rocket attack on a U.S. Navy ship in the harbor at Aqaba, Jordan.

Syria: There’s a new dissident Syrian blog in on the net: Syria Comment PLUS. Gateway Pundit links to his report of unrest in the North.

Yemen: Jane at Armies of Liberation reports on some revolting conduct by the government of Yemen toward journalists who report allegations of government corruption. Death threats are just the beginning. In one case, they threatened a journalist’s kids. There are signs of a blogswarm. Separately, she writes about “kaafirophobia,” but don’t expect to see seminars about it on a campus near you.

Africa

Zimbabwe: The Zimbabwean Pundit has several interesting posts this week, all of them deeply depressing. Dictator-for-Life Robert Mugabe is using his dubious win in last March’s elections to rewrite the Constitution, giving himself even more powers than he held previously. The leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, has seemed at a loss for what to do next since March. After the threat of an MDC split, Tsvangirai has gone back to the people to set the party’s new direction. China is happy to assist with the looting, most recently of Zimbabwe’s mineral resources.

Ethiopia is still holding its sham election. Gateway Pundit has much more.

Latin America

Cuba: It’s been a bad week for Fidel Castro. Babalu Blog’s Val Prieto and his computer both survived Hurricane Katrina (which is great news for the rest of us). Val reports on a more profound and preventable tragedy: “Thirty one souls who wanted only to breathe freedom. God damn you, fidel castro. Stefania at Free Thoughts has photos of a meeting of an independent and official campesinos’ union.

Venezuela: There is actual news not involving Pat Robertson’s mouth. Publius reports on more violent protests on the streets of Caracas, on its worsening economy and increasingly corrupt government, and how the opposition is building a case for a peaceful change of power. The Bad Hair Blog describes an uncomfortable meeting between Hugo Chavez and the Pope.

H.L. Mencken observed that for every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong. Pat Robertson’s call for the assassination of Hugo Chavez appears to have won him few friends, although the critics can’t agree on why not (since all agree that none would miss him). Not even anti-Chavez Venezuelan bloggers are supportive. Eugene Volokh has strong reservations about the use of assassination as a tool of foreign policy, although that tool has some unlikely proponents. Most reactions were ambivalent, including Val Prieto, who helpfully offers to buy the ammo, but also sees the downside: “I’ve never been a fan nor a follower of Robertson. And he may very well be a beer or two short of a six pack, but for months now Hugo Chavez has been stating the US wants to kill him with much hyperbole and fanfare. So it seems to me Robertson was just calling his bluff. . . . The MSM, unfortunately, will harp on this, ad infintum, until we are all just sick of hearing about it. And Chavez and fidel, along with their MSM coconspirators, will use this to their advantage. The Manolo’s companero Val, he is wise, for Jesse Jackson is already getting himself some publicity by declaring that Chavez is as harmless as a fluffy little dove. Another effect of Robertson’s charge through the foreign policy china-shop is that his own relationships with nefarious regimes now become fair game.

Europe

Belarus remains a dreary laboratory for out-of-work Sovietologists. Alenda Lux reports that the Belarussian government recently arrested or detained several members of the opposition, two Georgian activists, and one U.S. diplomat. Poland is leading diplomatic efforts to pressure the Lukashenko regime and support the opposition, and former Solidarity leader Lech Walesa recently said he would support a democratic revolution in Belarus. Condoleeza Rice, speaking from Lithuania, denounced Belarus as Central Europe’s “last true dictatorship.” Germany’s Radio Deutsche Welle may soon begin broadcasting into Belarus. Dissent is possible in Belarus for those with courage, such as Students for Global Democracy. Here’s how you can support them. Their “unauthorized” portrait of Lukashenko alone is worth a click.

The Ukraine celebrates the 14th anniversary of its independence from Soviet rule–now as a free nation. A brave journalist who died for exposing dictator Leonid Kuchma’s corruption is honored.

What do Poland, the Ukraine, Georgia, and Lithuania have in common? Boxing Alcibiades reports that they’re all seeking a more “multipolar” Eastern Europe, one with less Russian influence and a more evangelical, Hegelian view of democracy than the agnosto-Episcopal values of the EU. That such an alliance became necessary says something about the gap between the EU’s high ambitions and its rudderless drift through reality. The backlash against Putin’s Russia isn’t confined to Eastern Europe, either (see Central Asia, below).

Russia‘s birthrate is plummeting. Chrenkoff has the stats.

With Germany in the middle of an election cycle, Gerhard Schroeder is looking for an issue to distract voters from the nation’s bleak economy. He appears to have settled on stirring fears of a U.S. invasion of Iran (this, the same Gerhard Schroeder who wants to sell arms to China). Scapegoating and playing on irrational fears are two tactics with long, sad histories in German politics.

Italy: Stefania at Free Thoughts wants to know whether the Italian Red Cross aided terrorists in Iraq, and informs us how the Vatican’s occupation of Iraq and Palestine has invited the natural results of Middle Eastern rage at these insults and grievances. Why do they hate us? It can’t help they we’re paying them to.

Central Asia

Gateway Pundit sees signs that Russia is losing its grip over its empire in the “near abroad.” Even as Russia’s population is falling rapidly, the populations of the ex-Soviet states in Central Asia are rising rapidly. Registan reports on a multinational pro-democracy organization, which includes members from Russia, the Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Kygyzstan.

Ingushetia‘s Prime Minister has narrowly escaped a bomb blast. Russian security forces blame terrorists, presumably from next-door Chechnya.

Afghanistan has seen a modest surge in fighting during the last two months. The “fighting season” has a long tradition, based on the practicality that small bands of fighters with mules can’t traverse high mountain passes until the snow melts. You would expect the fighting to be more severe with a referendum on the country’s constitution coming in less than three weeks, but the Taliban has just declared that it won’t attack the polls, in what is either an attempt at deception, an effort to preserve its dwindling street cred, or a sign of ambivalence about martyrdom (HT: Chrenkoff). Otherwise, what’s the news from Afghanistan? Nothing newsworthy, really.

Azerbaijan: Registan reports on an interesting approach to suppressing the opposition vote: simply rename two spoiler candidates after the opposition’s candidate. Update: There’s a more detailed post over at the New Eurasia blog. Thanks, Marianna.

Armenia: Oneworld Multimedia reports on the latest efforts to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Iraq is not the only country writing a new constitution. U.S. diplomats are offering words of encouragement, but the opposition has yet to fully join in the electoral process.

Turkmenistan: “Turkmenbashi” Niyazov is a very odd breed of bird. He’s already forced everyone to buy and read his book. He’s banned gold teeth, opera, ballet, and car radios. He’s renamed a month of the year after himself. Now, he’s banned recorded music at public events. Insert your own Milli Vanilli joke here.

Tajikstan has put a rather Soviet end to one of the more imaginative ways of smuggling dope of which I’ve heard.

Uzbekistan: Coming Anarchy links to a piece in The Economist thrashing the EU for its “spineless” response to the massacre at Andijon, where Publius reports that the protests (if not all of the protestors themselves) are back. Arthur Chrenkoff wonders if the left will care about human rights in Uzbekistan now that the United States has announced that it’s removing its military bases.

Kazakhstan: After failing to acquire Unocal, China has purchased the Canadian firm PetroKazakhstan.

Kyrgyzstan‘s new leaders appear to be headed for a power struggle, Registan reports. On one side is President Kurman Bakiev, a former economist and opposition leader; on the other is Prime Minister Felix Kulov, a former leader of the post-Soviet successor to the KGB, later jailed by the deposed Akayev regime.

Turkey‘s Prime Minister’s recently commented on his country’s past treatment of its Kurdish minority. His words will seem like gross understatement to outsiders, but in the context of Turkey’s domestic politics, they are a dramatic departure from an official state of denial that the Kurds are a distinct people.

United States

The American home front is probably the only front on which the War on Terror–a fight for the survival of America’s freedom and prosperity–could be lost. President Bush tries to persuade the American people of what’s at stake, as some ask whether he’s making his case directly enough. Donald Sensing asks wants the President to talk to the American people about the consequences of defeat. Strategy Page has more.

A small college newspaper in Illinois thought it had the next Cindy Sheehan story, but it turns out to have a hoax, most likely politically motivated.

If our country is great ten years from now, it will be because of men like Casey Sheehan, not because of the words his mother spoke while blinded by paroxysms of grief and the spotlights of her exploiters. Take a moment to remember Casey Sheehan. Further from the cameras, a young Marine is welcomed home by a town that appreciates his sacrifice.

Friends of authoritarian regimes everywhere, take heart: Jane Fonda and George Galloway are together at last. Can Kim Jong Il be far behind? Ted Turner is working on it. Karl Rove has sent out his staff to book all of them on the Sunday shows and Hannity & Colmes.

There is apparently an alternate universe just miles from my home in which “support our troops” means taunting them in their hospital beds. The surrender activists at Code Pink became victims of their own “soldiers are victims” propaganda when they distastefully brought their message to the wounded soldiers at Walter Reed. Not only were the Freepers waiting for them, but so was a young soldier who lost both legs in the fighting four months ago. Do not hold your breath waiting for a New York Times columnist to declare that this soldier–who roundly denounced Code Pink–speaks with absolute moral authority.

United Nations

John Bolton is already throwing down drop cloths and knocking out walls. First in his sights is reforming the U.N.’s reform proposal. Most of the U.N.’s failings can be reduced to a single flaw: the absence of common values. John Tabin links to a piece in The New Republic that addresses that flaw in party by proposing a U.N. counterpart for the exclusive membership of democracies.