Talks Near Collapse

The Chinese compromise proposal I mentioned yesterday appears to have gone nowhere. South Korea, ever true to its eros for the middle ground and the path of least resistance, is lobbying the U.S. and Japan to give in:

The South Korean delegation reportedly lobbied U.S. and Japanese negotiators on the point when they met for the first time Friday. It is said to have argued that any sovereign state is entitled to light water reactors, either by building them on their own or through cooperation with other countries. But the U.S. says that is unacceptable.

South Korea said it would attach three conditions, namely that North Korea pledges to abandon all nuclear weapons and nuclear arms programs, conform to regulations set by international bodies and international law, and forswear uranium enrichment and reprocessing facilities in accordance with the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Been there, done that, says Chris Hill. Sing, o zaftig wench with tusked helmet!

Update: I guessed right. The Chinese proposal didn’t fly, and the talks have been extended for another day. The Rajin story puts in all in context. China seeks to drag this process out until it can further cement its control–economic and perhaps more–over the North. South Korea could do much to help if it would quietly inform the Chinese that reserves the right not to honor contracts signed during the Kim Jong Il regime.

Update 2: The U.S. and Japan appear to be serious about this:

Rice hinted at a deadline. “So we’ll see, I think in the next five or so days … whether or not they’re prepared to make a strategic choice about their nuclear weapons programs … and that will show us whether we can get a deal.”

Japan said Friday could be key. “I believe today will be a trial day,” Japan’s chief delegate, Kenichiro Sasae, told reporters. “It is important that North Korea reconsider its position over the issue of a light-water reactor.”

We often argue back and forth about how much news the North Korean leaders get from the outside. I personally think they get plenty, but that the psychological atmosphere within the North Korean government, like that in pre-war Japan, makes the appearance of moderation inversely proportional to longevity. People congeal into blustering, group-thinking cliques to survive. I suspect they will miscalculate right up to the brink.