Korea: A Shrimp Between Whales Again
This summation from the Chosun Ilbo sounds about right to me:
The U.S. is the only counterpart the North’s foreign policy recognizes. Seoul, for Pyongyang, is just a pawn to help it maneuver into a better position vis-Ã -vis the U.S. The result is that the U.S. no longer listens to Seoul and the North regards it as a mere foil in its dealings with Washington.
The moment when the U.S. takes unilateral action to deal with all the problems it has with North Korea, from nuclear arms to counterfeiting, is not far off, chiefly because attempts to persuade the country with kind words has failed dismally. In that event Pyongyang may well try to hold South Korea hostage, and we could find ourselves squeezed between the adversaries.
In these circumstances, the government’s threat of “friction and disagreement” between Seoul and Washington is an empty show of force. But it could result in the complete sidelining of Seoul in dealing with North Korean matters. Then the Roh Moo-hyun administration’s catchphrase, “The destiny of the Korean Peninsula should be determined by the Korean people themselves,” will have had exactly the opposite effect.
My only mild disagreement is that the North Koreans would take China seriously, were the latter the least bit serious about throttling North Korea. But it’s not.
On the greater point, however, I’d only expand by saying that South Korea’s policy is so based on emotion–incomprehensible emotion at that–that rational calculation of the strategic hazards has been lost.