Don Kirk on North Korea’s Divide-and-Rule Coup; Plus, Why the T-Dong 2 Failed
Read it yourself, but I’ll tempt you with his strong close:
These differences alone reveal the gulf between South Korea and the US. The North Korean missile shots have landed on target, widening the rift, deepening the discord, resurrecting the specter of the ancient Japanese foe. There may be ways to postpone a widening crisis, but no foreseeable way out.
Minor point: It’s an SM (Standard Missile)-3, not a SAM-3, which is a much older Russian make. Otherwise, Kirk nails it. Could Kim be smart enough to have predicted this, or is it unreasonable to speculate that he has some inside knowledge of how Roh would react? (Thanks to Duke for posting the link.)
On the subject of missile technology, NKZone has linked to a very detailed analysis of exactly why the launch failed, at GlobalSecurity:
According to US and Japanese government officials the three stage first Taep’o-dong-2A, or 2B or 2C/3 regardless of what the design configuration ultimately turns out to be apparently lost some piece of flight hardware which was sighted falling from the vehicle very early in the launch. Presumably it was its two-piece encapsulating payload shroud-fairing, which broke loose. It probably, impacted the satellite payload and third stage heavily damaging them. This shroud is used to protect the payload from aerodynamic forces during launch through the atmosphere and its fairing is presumed to be a derivation of the “IRIS” Iranian design.
The failure apparently took place during the flights Max-Q (maximum aerodynamic dynamic pressure) while on its ascending pitch over program between 35 and 42 seconds causing it to systematically veer off course. It then broke apart shortly afterwards at 50-52 seconds of flight when the second stage and what was left of the third stage and payload sheared off in its various parts. This is when the telemetry was lost as it was keeling over. The first stage apparently remained “air born for upwards of two minutes” while still continuing the first stage burn before it finally tumbled out of control collapsing into the Sea of Japan.
Global Security is left-of-center, and I treat their conclusion that there was a satellite aboard with some mild skepticism — mild because GS has generally tried to be objective, and because it’s immaterial anyway. The delivery system is the threat that concerns us today, and the manner in which it was tested was intentionally threatening. Incidentally, GS’s author concludes that the missile was in fact headed for Hawaii, because that’s the easiest trajectory for a satellite launch (partial credit to the Sankei Shimbun for this one, then). Read the whole thing.
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