Chosun Ilbo’s Take on Dem Takeover Sketches Shape of New Realignment
Today is November 9th, which means that the official sulking period has ended, and it’s time to start picking your way though the banquet of bloggable delicacies of our new moveable feast. America has moved to the left, but it’s uncertain just how far. At the same time, Korea seems poised to move right just, and it’s not at all clear that either side will stop to shake hands if, and when, they cross paths.
A more elemental question is where each path will lead. The most important question now is where the new center of gravity will be in Congress. Plenty of the new crop of Dems seem to be centrists, and come from centrist districts. Historically, the Democrats have needed that centrist wing to be a majority party, but have had trouble keeping them under a tent woven from deep blue cloth. North Korea could be one manifestation of those differences. Take the issue of direct talks, probably the biggest difference between the parties, per se (though on that, several key Republicans side with Dems). Sure, talk if you must, but what actual demands are you really prepared to drop? The uranium program? Counterfeiting? Verification? Dismantlement of the nuclear program? Chem and bio weapons? Human rights? (Well, everyone has pretty much just paid lip service to that last one, if that). The Chosun Ilbo doesn’t think things will change much, and not to Korea’s advantage:
But if the six-party talks produce no results, the Democrats could become even more hawkish than the Republicans. “It was the Democratic administration which talked about the need to launch preemptive strikes on the North’s nuclear facilities in the 90s,” a Foreign Ministry official here said. “There is little fundamental difference between the Democrats and Republicans in the way they address North Korea.” Another official said only some in the Democratic Party stress dialogue with the North. You misunderstand the situation if you believe that the Democrats will favor appeasement of the North.
I have no doubt at all that some Democrats absolutely do favor appeasement of the North. So do a smaller number of Republicans. The question is whether that view will prevail, which depends on whether a solid majority can agree on it. I also believe that Democrats who speak of strikes are engaging in cheap talk. If they refer to William Perry, he had his chance to be tough. The Bush Administration is his chance to talk tough instead, without facing any real consequences for what he prescribes.
Rumsfeld’s resignation could help Seoul take over sole operational control of its troops as and when it wants since the defense secretary was keen on an early handover, sources said. At the same time, the Democrats are mainly interested in Korea shouldering a bigger share of U.S. Forces Korea upkeep, which could lead to fresh conflict between the allies.
My sincere hope is that based on Tom Lantos’s record — strong on human rights, a supporter of talks, but tough minded — he’ll call for direct talks but ultimately not expect us to give something for nothing. On human rights, the Republicans have talked a good game and done very little of consequences (we’ve taken in, what, nine refugees?). Some Democrats may be tempted to steal the issue from Republicans by making it an issue. I suspect that from Lantos himself, it won’t be cheap talk. He joined Rep. Frank Wolf as a co-author of what became the ADVANCE Democracy Act; later, he joined McCain, Wolf, and Lieberman in rolling it out publicly. Lantos is a Holocaust survivor. I suspect the experience shaped him. Could this portend a split between Dems in the foreign policy establishment and more idealistic Democrats? More importantly, could it mean a new left-right convergence on putting human rights back on the table? I hope so. North Korea will be a good test case for that, and North Korea’s food situation this winter may be the first place that manifests itself.
They also say that the FTA is in real trouble now, and on that, no less an authority than Rep. James Leach agrees. The Koreans’ excessive and unreasonable demands to exclude pretty much everything we want to sell have killed it, and if they think pro-union Democrats are going to let Kaesong into the kitchen, they’re fooling themselves. Fact is, the Dems are in a very isolationist mood. Not only does that portend badly for USFK’s ground component, but if Democrats win again in 2008, it portends badly for keeping our air power there, too.