U.S. and Japan Quietly Prepare for North Korean Collapse
The Asahi Shimbun said the government has estimated that 100,000 to 150,000 people would arrive from North Korea and has been discussing with the United States how to deal with such a situation.
Japan could only provide temporary shelter for several tens of thousands of displaced persons and would need to consider transferring them to third countries in such a case, the Asahi quoted government sources as saying.
The refugees are expected to head to southern Japan from ports on North Korea’s east coast. The government estimate was based on the number of ships and boats North Korea is believed to have. [link]
South Korea is highly reluctant to engage in that sort of joint planning for fear of offending Kim Jong Il. Japan is talking with the United States about how to feed and shelter people. That’s why a U.S.-Japan alliance has a future, and a U.S.-Korean one doesn’t.
South Korea used to be like a dog that carried its own leash in its mouth as it walked with its master. Yesterday its master was American but day by day, its master looks more and more Chinese. Unfortunately for the canine, they want to hold that leash. Whereas the Americans fashioned a nice comfortable US leather collar, the new one is a new metal choker made in China. Whereas the American master would tolerate some wandering by its ROK companion as they took their walks together, the new master is always saying “heel”.
Brief side note – I think the Great Garlic War of around 2000 is an example of things to come if SK does move to align itself with China over the US even economically speaking.
Next, the actual comment I wanted to make:
I’ve been saying all along, if South Korea’s leaders were really focused on Korea’s future and understood the dynamics of that future —
instead of pushing away the US and Japan and looking at China as the next (#1 super pwer) (something I’ve heard Koreans of all stripes say) —
they would be going in the opposite direction and trying to be even more friendly and cooperative with both nations.
They should be pushing those two nations to work with it on a type of Marshal Plan for the post-NK collapse.
That is by far the best hope South Korean society has at weathering the storm that will come with the North’s collapse.
If South Korea could ensure that the North wouldn’t collapse through it’s effort as well as others like China, then that could be an alternative, but the reality is that SK and others are not going to continually pump in the kind of resources NK needs to “ensure” it doesn’t collapse.
So, what they have basically chosen to do is follow the Sunshine policy that alienates its most powerful/useful friends in favor of trying to keep the North alive but always knowing collapse could happen regardless of their effort.
It’s not a very good strategy…