Will a Junta Replace Kim Jong Il?

[Update: The Scotsman says that Kim Jong Il is already putting the system through a dry run.]

The bad news is that so far, this development is scheduled to take place after Kim Jong Il’s natural death.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il might consider a “collective” leadership system after he leaves office, a move away from the long-anticipated father-to-son power transfer, diplomatic sources said Sunday.

According to the sources, Kim did designate his eldest son Jong-nam as heir apparent in the past, but changed his mind a few years ago to introduce the group-based leadership. [Yonhap]

As for Kim Jong Nam, if you believe Yonhap’s sources anyway, the disinterest in his succession is mutual. If there was any real chance of him taking the throne after that whole Disneyland fiasco, I’d have to say that the recent exposure of his less-than-monastic lifestyle in Macau was probably his “study hard or you’ll get stuck in Iraq” moment. You could pretty obviously feed an entire North Korean village for a year with what this guy downs for dim sum. It would be an act of subversion to build a statue of him, despite the fact that they’re already available in quantity. And who would give up the life he’s living for the bleakness of Pyongyang?

Anyway, this report sounds plausible. After all, what are the alternatives? Second son Kim Jong Chol was reported as having been sidelined a year ago. Various reports say Kim Jong Il disfavors Jong Chol because he “acts like a girl,” a function of the fact that he “secrete[s] an excessive amount of female hormones.” Not that there’s anything wrong with that. (OFK dossier here; Richardson has a more “authentic” photo here, although I am still having too much fun using this one.)

After that, the youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, about whom very little is known, is reported to be at least quasi-evil, but passing over two older sons would be a serious breach of Confucian tradition for a regime that rules like very much like a traditional Asian dynasty. The generals, on the other hand, have been through Darwin’s crucible. Could any of Kim Jong Il’s spoiled punk kids have a chance of winning a power struggle against the battle-hardened veterans of this much infighting, brinksmanship, plotting, famines, and bouts of delerium tremens? I report, you decide.