N. Korea Admits 1M-Tonne Food Shortfall

As with every “revelation” that even partially originates from the North Korean government, treat this  with some skepticism:

North Korea has admitted for the first time to food shortages of a milion tonnes, the World Food Programme said on Monday, adding that in the absence of better donor support, millions are vulnerable to hunger.  [Reuters, Lindsay Beck]

Note that this estimated shortfall is  250,000 tonnes higher than  the WFP had last  estimated, and  consistent with  the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation’s latest estimate.

In the past that food gap — which represents about 20 percent of North Korea’s needs — was met by a combination of bilateral aid, WFP support, loans and commercial interests, but those sources are all drying up, the WFP said.

“This is a very significant development that they themselves are confirming they have a gap of 1 million tonnes,” WFP Asia director Tony Banbury told Reuters.

Banbury, you recall, was passed over as WFP Director in favor of  Josette Sheeran recently.  Banbury and fellow WPF  official Richard Ragan  have a long history of pretty much giving the North Koreans whatever they ask for, without asking any tough questions or making any firm demands to monitor whether that aid goes to the intended recipients.

“There is a real food security problem in the country that is now not being met either by domestic production or external sources.”

I’m convinced that North Korea begins to care about food shortages the instant they start to have some effect on groups  that can  affect  Kim Jong Il’s hold on  power — Pyongyang residents, the military, and populations in the border regions  that have begun learning to live without the regime’s rations.  With some limited signs that those groups’ food needs are  approaching “critical” levels, we have more leverage to offer North Korea generous food aid if —  and only if —  we can monitor its distribution, just like  the U.N. does everywhere else on earth  it provides food aid (most of it paid for by U.S. taxpayers). 

But the new rage is to capitulate all leverage we’ve built in recent years.  Watch us offload tons of grain at Nampo and Chongjin, and then ask one year later why so many  people are still starving.