Is North Korea Shutting Down Yongbyon After All?

Update:   Or maybe just wishful South Korean thinking?

Contrary to published reports, the United States has seen no signs that North Korea has begun to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility as called for in a February 13 six-country agreement, a senior U.S, official said on Tuesday.

News reports in South Korean media are “just not accurate … We have seen no actions on the North Koreans’ part that at this point leads us to believe they are fulfilling their part of the 60-day actions,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The official also said there was no indication the North had yet collected $25 million in accounts from a Macau bank that had been frozen as a result of U.S. action and then released as a way to persuade Pyongyang to return to negotiations over its nuclear program.

“We’re puzzled,” the official told Reuters. 

Me, too, for reasons I  explain below.  North  Korea has  so little to lose and so much valuable time and  money to  gain by doing this.  I guess we’ll see. 

Update 2:   Hope this sampling of headlines clears everything up!  

No sign of North Korea reactor shutdown: U.S. official [Reuters, 17 Apr 2007] Contrary to published reports, the United States has seen no signs that North Korea has begun to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility as called for in a February 13 six-country agreement, a senior U.S, official said on Tuesday. 

North Korea signals atomic shut down [AP, Tue, 17 Apr 2007] Intelligence officials reported increased activity Tuesday around North Korea’s main nuclear reactor, indicating the country may be preparing to uphold its agreement to shut down the plant. 

North Korea May Be Ready to Shut Reactor, Japan Says (Update2) [Bloomberg.com Mon, 16 Apr 2007]   North Korea may be preparing to shut its Yongbyon nuclear reactor as part of a six-nation agreement reached in February, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said. 

No sign of North Korea reactor shutdown [Independent Online Tue, 17 Apr 2007] The United States says it has seen no signs that North Korea has begun to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility. 

North Korea Has Limited Time to Shut Nuclear Reactor (Update2) [Bloomberg.com Mon, 16 Apr 2007] North Korea doesn’t have an “infinite amount of time” to shut down its nuclear reactor and the patience of the U.S. and other signatories to the six-nation accord is limited, the State Department said. 

Original Post:

North Korea may have started to shut down its nuclear reactor and source of its weapons-grade plutonium, South Korean media reported on Tuesday.

U.S. spy satellite photographs showed increased activity around the North’s Soviet-era Yongbyon reactor, major daily newspaper Dong-A Ilbo quoted a diplomatic source as saying.

“Washington thinks it is highly likely that those activities are a part of North Korea’s operations to close down the nuclear facility,” the source with access to intelligence information told the paper.  [Reuters]

As I explained here, shutting down Yongbyon is something North Koreans have done — and undone — before, so I guessed that there was “a good chance” that they’d do so. Given the reportedly decrepit condition of the 5 MW reactor, and the fact that they’re building a much bigger 50 MW reactor elsewhere, Yongbyon was hardly worth the trouble of keeping. Furthermore, we have no information on just how substantive this “shut down,” assuming it’s actually happening, will be.  It should be more meaningful than just putting a piece of tape on the door.

The North Koreans also haven’t invited the IAEA inspectors back in, but there’s a good chance they’ll do that, too, for similar reasons, on a very limited scale, and for a high price.

What the North Koreans will not do is anything irreversible:  they will not fully disclose their existing nuclear programs or weapons, and they will not negotiate in good faith over the return of Japan’s abductees.  They will continue to stall and string us along.  They will pretend to disarm, and we will pretend to believe them.