The Last Chance

Does this sound like a country that’s made the decision to give up its nuclear arsenal?

The North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper ran a lengthy editorial to mark the anniversary, imploring the poverty-stricken population of 23 million to rally around Kim, the official Korean Central News Agency said.

“Never forgettable are acclamations of October, 2006, when we shouted hurrah again and again at the top of our voices in admiration of General Kim Jong Il who unfolded an eternally clear sky of peace, prosperity and hope above the heads of the 70 million people,” the state-controlled paper said, referring to both North and South Koreans.

The nuclear test was a “truly great miracle,” the paper said, sending the North “soaring as a powerful and great nation” at a time of hardship.  [AP]

Not if you have even a basic familiarity with North Korean propaganda. 

Now, I’m of the opinion that the Bush Administration intentionally signed a deal that it knows will solve nothing to give it cover for a quiet exit from office without having done anything to actually solve the problem.  Nothing at this time suggests otherwise.  Indeed, the recent stories about North Korea giving nuclear materials, equipment, or technology to Syria do much to support my theory, given the Administration’s reaction.

But there is another (admittedly unlikely) option.

If the North Koreans are already  cheating, and if we’ve already caught them cheating,  this isn’t the time to say it.  Solving the North Korean problem will be far easier without a South Korean government as determined as Roh Moo Hyun’s to undermine any pressure we put on the regime.  Scrapping Agreed Framework 2 now would refocus the attention of Korean voters and give the left a last chance to set America up as the bad guy before December’s election.  Let’s hope that American policy-makers are smart enough to know that the less South Koreans think about the North in the next few months, the better.  I give them credit for that much.

What else happens in December?  North Korea is supposed to hand over a full declaration of its nuclear programs.  So indulge this dream of mine:  that would be a good time to state that the declaration is incomplete and proceed to levy the Mother of All Sanctions.  After all, we pretty much expect that the declaration won’t be complete.  Who expects anything else?   So what then?  Most likely, we’ll keep stalling  pressing the North Koreans for a more complete explantion.  Then there’s a less likely option:

If this diplomatic game fails, I don’t really see another diplomatic game in the future. This [the Bush administration] is a tough administration negotiating in regards to nuclear weapons. If the North Korea side can respond with commitment.

[….]

The administration will not negotiate agreements that will go beyond this term. I do not know to what extent President Bush considers denuclearization a realistic goal, but if the goals are not reached, it is not our [US’] fault.  [Victor Cha at the Daily NK]

Like I say, irrational.  I don’t think anyone sees a military option, which leaves only sanctions (which actually worked surprisingly well).  They’d have to be pretty severe sanctions to have much effect in a year, at most.

See also: 

An interesting report on the three main private  organizations broadcasting into North Korea.