North Korea’s Food Situation ‘Far More Hopeless Than Expected’
Good Friends has published its latest dispatch from the Untergang in Pyongyang: all food rations in the capital appear to have stopped, and there are rising fears of famine in the countryside:
North Korea’s food shortages are so bad that even its elite citizens in Pyongyang will not get state food rations until September, a local relief group said Thursday. Seoul-based Good Friends said the North has decided to suspend state food rations in the capital city for six months from this month amid the worsening food situation. The Buddhist group, however, did not reveal the source of that information.
A grim prediction is spreading that there will be massive deaths from famine in provincial areas of the impoverished country around May, it also said. It indicated the decision is unprecedented, quoting some senior Pyongyang officials as saying food distribution was not even cut for such a long period of time during the country’s worst food crisis in the late 1990s. [Yonhap, via the Hanky]
Good Friends quotes a North Korean official in Pyongyang, who says the situation is “far more hopeless than expected.” The rumor in North Korea is that North and South Hamgyeong will be out of food by the end of this month, and — I emphasize, this is merely local rumor — we’ll soon be seeing massive loss of life in large cities like Chongjin and Hamhung.
The AP also picks up the story. More background and context here and here.
Neither tantrums in the Rodong Sinmun nor — I regret to say it — famine in the countryside will be remembered fifty years from now, but the regime’s inability to feed its elite will unleash forces that will fracture the regime. The North Korea will seize control of our headlines again this year. The regime’s sudden collapse would be the most bloodless end to it … and probably not the most likely.
Full report from Good friends:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/SHIG-7DAFYF/$File/full_report.pdf
did anyone notice that the hanky paper HAD to mention that no source was cited for the food shortage report? typical….for the Hanky….
OneFreeKorea,
What are we looking at, here?
Best case scenario?
Worst case scenario?
Can you give a 6 month prediction as to what the status of the North will be?
What are we looking at here?
Best case scenario?
Worst case scenario?
Can you give a prediction as to the status of the North 6 months down the road?
I expect that within 6 months, we will have seen one or more of the following events —
– A violent suppression of one or more large public protests, resulting in a temporary restoration of the regime’s control and a worsening food crisis;
– Significant loss of life due to famine, mass internal migrations, and a real refugee crisis along the Chinese-NK border;
– Significant internecine conflict within the regime, which may trigger regime collapse or the balkanization of the country into de facto feifdons.
Normally the Sunshine Boys would be coming to the regime-propping rescue right now. But unfortunately North Korea has painted itself into a corner with its outbursts against Lee Myung-bak.
They need a way to save face and backpedal to “engagement” mode, but I don’t think LMB is about to give them one. All they can do is keep ratcheting up tensions and hope LMB blinks.
China can ill-afford to have a North Korean refugee crisis and a potential military coup on its border during this years summer olympics.
While North Korea has been a dangerous but politically amusing neighbor for China, under Kim Jong Il it has become too much of a liability. China cannot continue to send food aid to North Korea while food prices continue to climb for Chinese citizens. They cannot risk food scarcity or public resentment at home.
Meanwhile, China cannot risk some political adversary gaining power in North Korea… even on the more remote chance. Beijing will want to ensure that any transition is swift, unchallenged and that the new leader is acceptable to Beijing.
My prediction for the next 6-months is that China has already selected and probably prepared a new North Korean successor. A food crisis will be terrible in May and June, becoming reported around the world. Kim Jong Il will become desparate and lash out through the media with increasingly desparate, illogical statements. His transition will be swift, from president to prisoner within a week. He will never again give a press interview or see the inside of a courtroom for more than an hour, just long enough to be sentenced.
The new leader will assume command of the government, enforcing a state of emergency and martial law (as if there was any other kind in N.K. these days) for a week until things quiet down. South Korea, China and the U.S. will quickly arrange to send emergency food shipments to end the starvation and ensure the position of the new stable government.
These food shipments, successor and in fact the timing have already likely been secretly agreed upon and arranged. All will probably occur prior to the olympics. We don’t want regional starvation and a potential unstable nuclear power neighbor to ruin the olympic ceremonies after all. We want things to be neatly, tidily resolved.
6-months from now: new N.K. leader, same government, food aid returns in twice normal amounts, N.K. and S.K. having their first serious summit under a new government and a spirit of cooperation.
My prediction: whenever collapse comes in the North, Kim Jong Il won’t live beyond 24 hours. He’ll be killed and his corpse desecrated. We will not see him on trial in the Hague.
More than likely, he’ll be assassinated as the start of final collapse.
North Korea has nothing to offer, unlike the other Axis of evil nations like Iraq and Iran. I wonder if any other countries will lend a helping hand to this soon to be collapsed nation.
darn…
i really was wishing for a ceacescu moment.