And Now, the Fallout

Kim Jong Il has followed yesterday’s nuke test by firing two more short-range missiles, as a rudderless world tries to decide how to respond.  When you consider each of these developments, ask yourself whether Kim Jong Il could reasonably have anticipated that it would happen.  So far, everything I see happening fits within the range of Kim Jong Il’s calculation of “acceptable consequences.”

• FOR ONE THING, KIM JONG IL IS PROBABLY BETTING that John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi don’t possess the spine to schedule votes on those sanctions bills introduced by Senator Brownback and Representative Ros-Lehtinen after North Korea’s April missile test.  Here’s the text of the House bill and the Senate bill, which are both full of sound ideas that would bring real pain to Kim Jong Il.  Remember that when you read … the next item.

• OBAMA IS “TESTED;” Bush, on the other hand, faced “questions” and “a political liability.”  It all depends on your perspective.  The worst part of the New York Times’s latest, however, is the worn falsehood that Obama has few options.  Thankfully, Obama’s people told the Times that “they were determined to organize a significantly stronger response than the Bush administration had managed after the North’s first nuclear test, in October 2006.”  OK, then, here’s a whole menu of options.  Use them.  I won’t sue.  They also recognize the real danger:  “The threat is not that they will shoot off a nuclear weapon; it’s that they will sell nuclear material.”  I’m glad there are brighter people in the White House than at the New York Times.

• MORE COMMENTS FROM OBAMA:   The new President called the nuclear and missile tests “a grave threat to the peace and security of the world” and  “a blatant violation of international law” that “endanger the people of Northeast Asia,” contradict North Korea’s “own prior commitments,” “have flown in the face of U.N. resolutions,” and “invit[e] stronger international pressure.”  We’ll see.

• EVEN THE FRENCH are calling for new sanctions.  But as we’ve learned, China and Russia can and will subvert multilateral sanctions, which focus on the tougher target of trade.  Unilateral sanctions against North Korea’s fragile finances have been far more effective.

• IN SOUTH KOREA, CALLS TO GO NUCLEAR:   Well, it’s not as if that the South might provoke North Korea to do something they’ve already done.  And South Korea, which has several commercial nuclear reactors, has already been sending below-the-radar signals that it’s interested in pursuing the uranium fuel cycle to its conclusion.

• AS IT DID IN 2006, Japan is debating whether to acquire first-strike preemptive defense capabilities.  That might require a constitutional amendment.  Japan is also prepared to levy new economic sanctions, but it’s not clear what other sanctions Japan hasn’t already imposed.  Commerce, shipping, luxury items, and remittances are already greatly restricted, and it has pretty much shut down Chongryon, a/k/a Chosen Soren.

• ALWAYS WORTH READING: Bruce Klingner’s analysis.