Kaesong: Dead or Just Pining?
[Updated below] The headline is pretty much what I’d predicted three years ago: “North Korea announces nullification of all ‘Kaesong agreements,'” and that’s from the Hanky:
North Korea’s military leadership has made statements hinting they would demand a withdrawal of businesses from Kaesong, but this is the first time the Bureau has brought up the possibility. In this notification, North Korea said,
“We announce the nullification of all Kaesong Industrial Complex agreements made between the two Koreas which gave preference to South Korea in terms of wages and land use fees based on the spirit of the June 15th joint declaration. In response, the spokesperson of South Korea’s Unification Ministry issued a statement, saying, “We offer a clear declaration that we cannot accept the announcement. [The Hankyoreh]
Even if the South Koreans somehow manage to rescue Kaesong in the short term, I can’t see who would ever invest in North Korea now.
With Kaesong dies the experiment called the “Sunshine Policy.” Contrary to what its backers promised, Kaesong didn’t do much lasting good for North-South relations, was never good to its North Korean workers or South Korean investors, never became a major center of manufacturing or exports, and was shut down by the North Koreans at the first hint that it might actually transform North Korean society to something kinder and gentler:
Despite the sizable profits it garners, North Korea is increasingly concerned about the cultural side effects of the joint industrial complex it runs with South Korea, experts in Seoul said Tuesday.
Such fears have driven North Korea to consider the possibility of shutting down the joint park in its border town of Kaesong, they said. [….]
“The fact that North Korea came to wonder whether it should continue the Kaesong industrial park suggests that from the perspective of the North Korean leadership, its side effects are not easy to deal with,” Yang Moon-soo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said in a forum.
North Korea strictly bans carrying South Korean items into Kaesong that may disperse ideas about the southern capitalist culture, such as mobile phones, cameras, newspapers, books as well as pornographic magazines. Still, routine day-to-day contact between South Korean managers and North Korean employees may form a conduit for Southern cultural influence, watchers say.
“The critical factor is that locals in the Kaesong region get to see the lives of South Koreans first-hand and that their longing for the South grows,” he said.
Watchers suggest such worries are toughening North Korea’s position on a South Korean worker facing political charges in Kaesong. [….]
While outsiders have commonly dubbed the joint park as “the goose that lays golden eggs” for North Korea, the experts noted that internal opposition to the venture is growing, particularly from North Korea’s hardline military. The border town of Kaesong formerly housed military facilities, but leader Kim Jong-il had ordered them out to build the joint park.
“From the military’s perspective, North Korea may have decided that there is more to lose than to gain,” Lee Su-seok, an analyst with the state-run Institute for National Security Strategy. [Yonhap]
The risks that the North Korean military perceived must have been significance, because Kaesong may also have been a cash cow for North Korea’s military. The subversive appeal of a better world continues to constrict Kim Jong Il’s means to support his misrule, despite the best efforts of Roh Moo Hyun and Chung Dong Young. Good riddance.
Updates: Following along with Roberts’ thoughts, here’s a previous post I’d almost linked, which notes the North Korean code of conduct for South Koreans at Kaesong and asks, “Who changed who?” Even if you don’t read a word, you’ll love the picture. But read these:
If there’s a new spirit of openness to be celebrated after a decade of massive wealth transfers to Kim Jong Il — or even a hint of it ““ it’s certainly not apparent in the rules that the North Korean Ministry of Public Security wrote for the occasion. What’s more apparent is that South Korea has acquired the habit of easy and casual acceptance of North Korean control. Want to do business here? Stay inside the fence, don’t talk to the workers or give them gifts, and listen to our creepy blaring propaganda. Want to meet your abducted relatives for a brief moment? Don’t expect them to speak freely. Want good relations with us? Silence our critics. Want our sports teams to visit you? Suppress all dissent and revere our Leader’s portrait as a sacred icon. Want our officials to visit you? Don’t let us see or hear any free speech. Want to visit us? Suspend the preparedness of your military and bow to our total control. And even then, as we will see, your safety will only be “conditionally” guaranteed.
How dangerous must Kaesong have been to the North Korean system to be worth taking a hit like this?
About 38,000 North Korean workers and their families would be immediately affected. “Assuming each North Korean worker has about four family members, roughly 150,000 North Koreans are living off the industrial park. That figure isn’t negligible,” a south Korean official said Sunday. [Chosun Ilbo]
In Seoul, the broader markets have hardly moved on this news, but shares for companies that invested in Kaesong’s slave labor business model are taking a beating. Good. Let every potential investor in North Korea take note. Oh, and the Unification Minister says Kaesong is in a “crisis.”