North Korean Isolation Creates Opening for Chinese Diplomacy
With all the drama going on so far this year concerning North Korea, there seems to be one thing missing: China. Whether this is a case of silent diplomacy that the rest of the world will never hear of or testimony to the fragility of the Mainland’s relationship with North Korea, I cannot say, but China’s influence on the DPRK has played a major role in how concerned powers have dealt with the Kim Jong Il regime in the past — and so far in 2009, China hasn’t been as publicly active as one would expect. In light of North Korea’s antics thus far this year (most recently its refusal to return to the six-party talks) an opportunity has arisen for China to steer the DPRK back to the negotiating table. However, developments so far this year have got some people wondering just how much influence China really has on North Korea these days.
From Voice of America:
Analysts say there is a lot of debate as to how much leverage China can exert on North Korea and whether Beijing could persuade Pyongyang to rejoin the six-party talks.
Drew Thompson is a China expert with the Nixon Center, a non partisan, public policy institution. “China definitely has influence and it has leverage. Often U.S. officials have stated that China is not using all of its leverage. And sometimes that simply refers to China’s essential delivery of aid shipments, of food and energy, whereas the U.S. officials have stated in the past that if China would just turn off the oil and energy going into North Korea, then North Korea would have to respond. The Chinese are very reluctant to use that opportunity to really apply coercive pressure on North Korea because they believe that North Korea would not respond kindly and it would basically ruin or undermine the existing China-North Korea relationship and take away the ability that China currently has to communicate with Pyongyang fairly effectively. So China does have leverage, but they also, at the same time, feel a little bit helpless,” he says.
The atmosphere seems ideal for Chinese involvement. There are signs North Korea has been alienating itself even more from other six-party members, creating an opening for Chinese diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal reports that the DPRK has blocked U.S. access to the detained U.S. reporters who have been held hostage for two months now; and the Swedish Embassy, which has had contact with the two journalists since their abduction, has sought additional meetings with the two women, but their requests have been denied. Likewise, a South Korean worker from the Kaesong Industrial Complex who was taken into DPRK custody in March has also not been allowed contact with representatives from his home country of South Korea. Add to this WSJ reports that Kim Jong Il did not meet with “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his visit to Pyongyang two weeks ago, though Russia is an ally” and you have to be wondering,”When will China step in?” The above instances may not directly affect China or its national interests, but they most certainly pave an entryway for the country to influence North Korea in ways other six-party nations have not been able to.
I predict starting this summer, we may witness a more vocal, although always publicly restrained Mainland, regarding further North Korean misbehavior.
In October, Beijing is throwing a blow-out party comparable to its 2008 Summer Olympics opening ceremony as it celebrates its 60th anniversary this fall. You can be sure Beijing won’t want anything stealing its thunder (ie. international media attention) in the build-up to its celebration — and that includes trouble from little brother North Korea. If not for its own selfish reasons, we may see China flexing its diplomatic muscles more than it has the first half of this year should further trouble from North Korea arise. The thought is that long as North Korea is at the bargaining table, chances of it creating havoc are slim. No doubt Beijing would want to see the situation stabilize before its 60th celebration bash.
Still, it looks like the Kim regime will try and squeeze in one more missile launch or some sort of nuclear test before considering further talk. If the North goes through on its threats, perhaps then we can expect China to speak out louder than it did in April.