In the case of a DPRK regime collapse, what power would South Korea have?

Had an interesting conversation this weekend with a North Korea watcher where for the first time, the idea of reunification seems realistic and within reach, yet at the same time, also at risk. It all has to do with the current health of Kim Jong Il who appears to be hanging on by a thread, the relatively short grooming period of his son to succeed him, and of course, China and the U.S. But not South Korea interestingly…

First, what makes the reunification scenario more possible this time around compared to previous predictions that have fallen short throughout the years? It’s obviously the brief grooming period for Kim Jong Un combined with his youth and inexperience. Should Fat Boy Kim croak within the next two years, the scene is perfectly set for a power struggle: How much loyalty will DPRK leaders and the people have for KJU? (Remember, his father had virtually decades of grooming – enough time for a loyal following to form.) Also, how much influence can a 26-year-old kid who has spent most of his years being educated in Europe (versus China or Russia) have on leaders who no doubt hold seniority over him not only in age, but also experience within the regime? Is a military coup possible in someone’s greed for power? Or will KJU act as a figurehead leader and let those in the regime control him as they see fit?

Granted, it could go any direction.

So what about China?

I’ve heard arguments both ways regarding possible actions China might take. There has been wide speculation that China would attempt to absorb North Korea while others say the country does not want to inherit the massive problems of starvation and desperation that would come with such a move.

It has also been suggested that in the event of a regime collapse, China may want to stage a coup in North Korea and rule by proxy. All it would take is money, and we all know the Mainland has a pretty good track record of throwing money at potential problems in attempts to get what it wants. All it’d have to do is buy out a few high-level government officials and there you go, right?

So where do all these scenarios leave South Korea, for I have heard very little about what South Korea could or would do besides perhaps protest or appeal to the U.S. to intervene on its behalf.

My contact seems to think that in order to prevent a China rule by proxy or invasion of North Korea after a regime collapse, the U.S. (not South Korea) would have to step in and try to hatchet out an agreement with the Mainland. Such an agreement, he believes, would require the absolute, 100% withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea which would leave the U.S. military nowhere near China or any of its borders. In such an event, perhaps then, China would back off and allow South Korea to occupy the North.

It’s an interesting prediction. In fact, all of the scenarios he and I went through yesterday were interesting to discuss. The idea that has really stayed with me, however, is the relatively powerless role South Korea would play. Any thoughts?