Korean War 2, Week 2 Begins!

SEC DEF GATES VISITS A MISSILE INTERCEPTOR SITE in Alaska:

“If there were a launch from a rogue state such as North Korea, I have good confidence we would be able to deal with it,” Mr. Gates said.

Despite its backing for the missile defense system, the Obama administration has proposed scaling back the number of interceptors to be placed in Alaska from 40 to 26, arguing the lower number would be sufficient to match near-term North Korean missile capabilities. But Mr. Gates said that if North Korea or other rogue states prove able to strengthen their missile and nuclear capabilities at a faster rate, the defense budget does not preclude future requests for a bulked-up program in Alaska.

The administration’s decision to cut the missile defense program has come under attack from supporters on Capitol Hill, but Mr. Gates noted that congressional critics of the system have largely grown quiet following North Korea’s recent spate of saber-rattling. [Wall Street Journal]

WHAT? YOU MEAN NORTH KOREA WAS CHEATING ALL ALONG? Siegfried Hecker, one of Agreed Framework II’s most outspoken backers, lets this slip out:

“I believed that North Korea planned to do a test once it decided to reprocess the 8,000 fuel rods [in mid-April],” he said. “I did not believe it had to finish before it tested because it could use its previously reprocessed plutonium for the test and replace it once the new plutonium is reprocessed. So, I am not surprised they tested early. This test had been in the planning stage for a long time. [Joongang Ilbo]

NORTH KOREA WILL USE ITS NEW MISSILE BASE, not Musudan-ri, to launch its next long-range missile. The train carrying the missile was observed as it was diverted from Musudan-ri to North Korea’s west coast. The new site is still under construction. So what gives?

One reason may be that the Dongchang-ri site is more advanced, thereby lowering the time and risk involved in launching a missile. The Dongchang-ri site is believed to be equipped with automated systems to track and control missiles and rockets, and to load them with liquid fuel. Also, the vertical launch pad is 40 m high, while the one in Musudan-ri is only 30 m, making it capable of launching long-range missiles or rockets carrying satellites.

The source said another advantage may be that if the missile crosses North Korea on an eastward trajectory, it can travel a longer distance than if it was fired from Musudan-ri, while making it easier to track and gather data from radar and other facilities in the North. He added that North Korea could fire the missile southward along the West Sea. Until now, a missile and long-range rocket fired from Musudan-ri crossed Japan, triggering strong protests from the Japanese government. Tokyo threatened to intercept the rocket. [Chosun Ilbo]

The new site is also closer to North Korea’s nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. It was built in flagrant violation of UNSCR 1695 and 1718 while Chris Hill and George W. Bush looked the other way. Google Earth images here.

WAITING FOR THE U.N. TO ACT:

“I think we are making progress and I am hopeful that in due course we will be producing a very worthy and strong resolution,” [U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan] Rice told reporters after emerging from closed-door bargaining with envoys from Britain, China, France, Russia, Japan and South Korea. [….]

A Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that under consideration was extending the list of entities targeted for travel bans or financial sanctions. In addition, a broader arms embargo, tougher inspections of cargo, a freeze on North Korean assets abroad and denial of access to the international banking and financial services were also being mulled, the diplomat said. [AFP]

RISING TENSIONS IN THE YELLOW SEA: North Korea is staging military exercises, stockpiling ammo, prohibiting commercial navigation, and putting larger warships to sea. My guess is, they know they lose a naval engagement, so they’ll opt to carry out their provocations elsewhere.

THE NORTH KOREANS ARE REFUSING TO TALK ABOUT that South Korean worker detained at Kaesong.