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Missile Shell Game

The North Koreans appear to be trying to wrong-foot our satellites, and may be about to do a multiple ICBM launch:

A special North Korean train which transported a long-range rocket or intercontinental ballistic missile to a launch site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province in May recently moved from a missile research center in Sanum-dong, Pyongyang to another launch site in Musudan-ri, North Hamgyong Province, a South Korean government source said Tuesday.

South Korean and U.S. authorities believe the North may have transported a second intercontinental missile to the launch site.  The North launched a long-range rocket from Musudan-ri on April 5, which had also been transported by special train.

Seoul and Washington are wondering whether the North will launch two long-range missiles from both launch sites at the same time or whether the train is just a smokescreen to confuse watchers. North Korea has threatened to launch another missile in protest against UN sanctions over its nuclear test. It apparently has three to four intercontinental ballistic missiles, and may be keeping one or two more at the research center in Sanum-dong. [Chosun Ilbo]

Even Russia’s deputy defense minister has threatened to shoot down any missile headed its way.  More here and here.

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11 Responses

  2. At some point, I’m going to start looking for regime collapse again.

    My unusual joining of the other fools who’ve predicted North Korea’s demise turned out to be as wrong as theirs, but I still like my thinking at the time, and I blame the failure on not being able to foresee Pres. Bush would go all Chris Hill on me…

    I made my “death before 2009” prediction based on how quickly NK tested a nuke after the 2nd ICBM launch. It seemed desperate to me and not like Pyongyang.

    Right now, that is exactly what I’d have to say we are seeing.

    North Korea is throwing everything its got just short of direct military clashes. It is using up its biggest cards at a really unusual pace. I think that is highly unusual for a state that I generally felt is very deliberate in what moves it makes – at times shutting out all intercourse with the rest of the world while it formulates its plans – taking time rather than reacting too quickly —- and above all keeping in mind a need to appear “strong” not “weak.”

    Right now, I’d have to say it’s actions are screaming “desperation.”

  3. Also, I think it is much easier and safer to say — whether these actions by NK are signs of desperation or not —- if Obama follows through with the renewed banking sanctions and adds to it blocking North Korean shipping or just blocks ships it believes are doing the dirty work NK needs to fund itself ——- the regime’s survival will be in question.

    I don’t think that is
    debatable.

    China might be able to step up aid to a level that counters the sanctions, but I would think it would take a clear effort that would mark a fundamental shift in policy – away from the one it has had for some time of just doing the minimum necessary to give Pyongyang a buffer against likely collapse.

    We’ll have to see if Obama proves to have more resolve than Bush…

  4. North Korea is throwing everything its got just short of direct military clashes. It is using up its biggest cards at a really unusual pace. I think that is highly unusual for a state that I generally felt is very deliberate in what moves it makes – at times shutting out all intercourse with the rest of the world while it formulates its plans – taking time rather than reacting too quickly —- and above all keeping in mind a need to appear “strong” not “weak.”

    Right now, I’d have to say it’s actions are screaming “desperation.”

    Agreed. While yeah, NK has made headlines consistently over the years, they have really just done one thing after another here. More in a few months than they did in the last few years combined, and that seems significant to me.

  5. I can’t believe it’s unrelated to the change of administration here. But based on what Treasury did to them today, they’ve clearly misread Obama.

    Maybe I did, too. I’d be glad if I did. Kim Jong Il won’t be.

  6. As you’ve pointed out, the real determinant as to whether the Obama administration is going to be any different from his two predecessors is not how he reacts to North Korea’s predictable escalation of tensions, but how he responds when North Korea offers to return to the table – for the right price. I’m encouraged at the Treasury move as well, but I’m more interested in what happens after they prove effective.

  7. I agree with the idea of the influence of a new administration coming in – especially one like Obama’s that you could bet would show very liberal tendencies.

    Just a few weeks ago, I said here I felt rudderless trying to gauge what North Korea was doing, but now after seeing them use up everything in rapid fire order and even getting ready to play the same cards twice — I’m not feeling as lost.

    One of North Korea’s strengths to me has always been its ability to milk situations and show more patience than its opponents. At times you could see them thinking, “We’re going to be here forever. This joker in the White House has 8 years max.”

    I just think it is too out of character for the regime to flail away like this…

    And the most likely reason we can guess at is that — they might not think they’re going to be here forever any more…

  8. Let’s post predictions, here and now
    on what will happen, when and how
    Will Pyongyang’s missiles, like “Twister”‘s cow
    fall on Hawaii or hit Palau?

    I’ll go first; give it a try…
    and will choose 4th of July!
    On that day please check the sky
    see Taepodongs with your own eye
    Afterward Jong-il will die
    as Barack swats him like a fly!