Missile Test Update
North Korea’s launch pad on its west coast is ready for a first launch:
Photographic images show the launch tower and what appears to be construction materials on the launch pad, Tim Brown, a senior fellow with GlobalSecurity.org, said Thursday. He speculated that the debris may be there to make the pad appear as though it is still under construction. “The launch pad appears to be operational,” Brown said. [AP, Pamela Hess]
Compare my photo from Google Earth to the latest image from Digital Globe. Looks about the same to me, really. And yes, that debris has sat there for a very long time … since September 18, 2006, according to Google Earth’s wonderful new time lapse feature. North Korea’s missile program will become much more dangerous when they develop silos connected by tunnels, something I don’t doubt they’ve contemplated and could do.
And also on the West Sea front, a North Korean patrol boat crossed the NLL yesterday, sat there for an hour, and motored north again. I agree with Bradley Martin that the North Koreans are going to pull some kind of military provocation against the South, but I also agree with Robert that they’d be fools to try a naval confrontation, something that President Lee has both the means and the will to make very embarrassing for His Withering Majesty.
Related: It’s Korean War 2, Week 2, but South Koreans are still visiting the DMZ.
Embarassing, but perhaps only vis-a-vis DPRK and the rest of the world. With the elite having somewhat of an understanding of the outside world (but wanting the status quo ante), and the rest of those wavering/hostile folks’ communication tightly controlled, who’s to say the NorKs aren’t going to report a military provocation with the South… as one provoked by the ROK? Especially if internal consolidation is the objective here.
“Today fifty of our brave protectors of the People’s Navy were lost at the provocation of the imperialist puppets in the South. Without any warning, the imperialists opened fire while three of our gunships were racing to rescue four DPRK fishermen whose catch was about to be exploited. The People’s Navy reports that they were successful in beating back the warmongerers, inflicting heavy casualties in the process.” – Rodong Shinmun, June 25, 2009 –
I’ve always said blood-letting is a North Korean-logical step after the use of ICBMs and nuke tests.
NK might be thinking that the South Korean navy under current leadership will give a quick OK to blowing North Korean patrol boats out of the water at the start of a skirmish that the Kim Dae-Jung wasn’t willing to give. But, it’s options aren’t limited much by that.
I don’t know the strengths of the North and South when it comes to West Sea. Does the South have a significant deterrent there? It doesn’t seem to matter to me, because the North has easy alternatives: DMZ incursions and skirmishes being an old trick.
Pyongyang could also return to the spy sub and small submersibles kicking up international attention as it did in the late 1990s.
If it really felt threatened by a possible collapse and decided it really needed to push the world’s buttons, it could stage terrorist strikes in South Korea and Japan via covert operatives already entrenched in those two countries.
It could also go back but on a larger scale to assassinations in South Korea of North Korea defectors.
In short, if the North wants to take this next step in brinkmanship, it has more than enough tools to work with.