The Issue of Grooming
While recent announcements of Kim Jong Un as the named successor have been downplayed here at OFK, I can’t help but feel that whoever will eventually take over the reins once Kim Jong Il is gone will be severely disadvantaged if the next leader is indeed directly from the Kim bloodline.
Kim Il Sung spent half a lifetime being “groomed” for leadership by the Soviets, including one intense year where he was accompanied in Korea by a Soviet spin doctor and other officials who toured the country with him, advised him, helped write his speeches and ultimately set him on the path to creating a public image which eventually led to a cult of personality in North Korea.
It wasn’t a process that took place overnight.
Likewise, when it came time to start thinking about a successor who would continue the Kim bloodline, The Great Leader started early in grooming his son Kim Jong Il for the position back in 1971, with some reports claiming the succession choice became official in 1974. Throughout the years, Kim Jong Il took on greater and greater responsibilities within the North Korean Worker’s Party so that by the time of his father’s death in 1994, he had had 20-some years of preparation for position as North Korea’s “Dear Leader.
It doesn’t look like the DPRK’s next “supposed” successor, however, will come into power so well-prepared. Assuming Kim Jong Un does ultimately take control, he’ll have to have quite a learning curve to make up for lost grooming time. We don’t know much about Kim Jong Un, but given the physical condition of Kim Jong Il and the drastic behavior we have seen coming from North Korea these days, it is safe to assume that this third succession risks undergoing a rough transition.
While news of Kim Jong Un’s (possible) upcoming leadership has only been recently addressed, some reports state he was named way back in January. Whether or not grooming has taken place prior to this year, I do not know, but I think it is a safe assumption that Jong Un (or any son of Kim Jong Il’s for that matter) won’t enjoy decades of preparation like his father did. It is apparent that Kim Jong Il does not have 20-some years of his life left to give toward the meticulous grooming of any his sons as the next leader, which is why some North Korea watchers are placing bets on Chang Song-taek who they say, will rule from behind-the-scenes until Kim Jong Un is ready to take full control (assuming he indeed inherits the position).
However, that poses a series of varying scenarios as well. Who is to say that once the Dear Leader passes away, there won’t be a power struggle between Chang and Kim, and who is to say that after the death of Kim has been “officially” mourned, we won’t see warring factions within the leadership as high-level officials aim to take advantage of a green Kim Jong Un? Remember, Kim Jong-il had decades of grooming to help him establish his power and presence within the Worker’s Party. This time around, based on Kim Jong Il’s physical condition, it seems the succession issue is racing against the clock.