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What’s Going on with North Korea’s “Conciliatory Moves”?

At times, reading about the life of Kim Dae-jung made me think I was reading the brief for a blockbuster movie in the making. His struggles and accomplishments read like the stuff films are made of and it’s true, no matter what you thought of him, DJ leaves behind a legacy in South Korea full of successes and failures.

But during my readings, a statement about his death’s impact on the future of North-South relations caught my eye (see page 2):

Analysts said Kim’s death may help bring the rival Korea back to dialogue, especially following conciliatory moves by the North in recent days that included a promise to reopen its border with the South, suggesting to some that tension may be subsiding.

I recall they said the same thing about the U.S. after Clinton’s visit to North Korea, as well as the visit of Hyun Jung-eun, chairwoman of South Korea’s Hyundai Group. Headlines such as this seem to hint at optimism when dealing with the DPRK.

And you could argue that relations have appeared to have warmed for now we are hearing of a meeting coming up between Bill Richardson and DPRK envoys in addition to talks about the reopening of North Korea resort tours for South Korea citizens.

But are these truly “conciliatory moves” made by North Korea? It depends on what will be proposed at the Richardson meeting, but as for warming ties with South Korea, money seems to be a driving force behind North Korea’s willingness to open up; the North’s behavior may be perceived as being conciliatory but the regime definitely has another agenda on its mind. The release of Yoo Seong-jin, the detained Hyundai employee, came at a price with the agreement to restart cross-border tourism, although it was also an agreement Hyundai probably couldn’t afford to pass up, literally.

(Never mind that tricky thing called a possible violation of U.N. sanctions that might get in the way of such ambitions.)

It’s worth noting that despite these developments between Hyundai and the DPRK, Seoul has distanced itself from the agreement.

Still, it seems analysts are eager to point to signs of warming ties between North Korea and South Korea, as well as with the U.S., and Kim Dae-jung’s death seems to be the latest opportunity for such optimism to shine. As for me, I’ll opt to go the cautious route before declaring that North Korea has shown interest in cooperating with the international community. I still think it’s too early to describe these latest moves as part of an “improved relationship” as I see the motive behind these developments more along the lines of survival on North Korea’s part, rather than a sincere effort to engage with the international community toward achieving shared interests. (For instance, I don’t believe North Korea will ever agree to disarm itself.)

It’s also hard to get too excited about such developments after years of riding North Korea’s roller coaster. Months ago I thought we were seeing the end of Kim Jong Il only to see he has outlived both Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Dae-jung in a turn of events reminiscent of Boris Yeltsin’s longevity in the 1990s. My point being, when it comes to North Korea, it’s better to go the cautiously optimistic route before jumping on every opportunity to declare improvement.

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6 Responses

  1. I’ve been amazed for a few years at how many points NK scores with think tanks and the media over agreeing to sit down at a table where it will allow other nations to discuss what they are going to give Pyongyang.

    I have not read any article about North Korea since the two reporters were released. I’m boycotting the topic because I can’t stand watching the experts and media doing what they always do — which plays a small role in why policy never smartens up…

  2. I have to wonder if we’re seeing a reprise of 1994: a sickly and dying Kim Il Sung “coming out of retirement” to take control of a situation that looks like it’s slowly spiralling out of control. We don’t hear a peep from KJI for months on end, but when Bill Clinton and Hyundai swing into town you suddenly see him pursuing some personal diplomacy on his end?

    Could also mean that whatever internal conflicts there were within the DPRK are done with, and Pyongyang is ready to do what it does best: extract concessions from the other side’s negotiators.

    Who knows? I think anything from this point on is almost pure speculation.

  3. We would be wise to remember that it has long been North Korea policy to attempt to isolate South Korea. Despite the 2000 and 2007 summits, Pyongyang has never granted official recognition to the legitimacy of the Seoul regime (and the reverse is true). The North Koreans have long preferred bilateral talks with the United States and they value senior-level meetings with US representatives far more than with ROK representatives.

    KJI may have met Hyundai’s chairwoman, but I’d imagine there was something in the meeting for his government. This is not a leader known for his magnanimity, independently of what KCNA publishes.

  4. It’s a replay of 1994 and the years since. This is pretty much classic NK playbook stuff — turn up the heat on the new president, then try to sell him the same horse all over again to make the pain go away. And I don’t think there’s much question that Kim Jong Il is trying to use Hyundai Asan to try to sideline Lee in his own country. So far, however, Obama, Lee, and Aso have done a far better job than their predecessors of forming a united front and not falling for this. Of course, all of them are old enough to have seen the same tactics tried used repeatedly.

    Thanks, Jodi, for saving me much time by saying a lot of what I’d intended to say myself — especially by noting the interplay between Kaesong, Kumgang, and UNSCR 1874, and Lee’s cool reaction to this. I may post later to add a few random thoughts, including how this all ties into the sanctions.

  5. OT (sorry), has there been any word of flu in North Korea? I fear to think what repeated bouts of malnutrition could do to a population’s ability to deal with an outbreak which is straining the health care systems in Australia and other nations. With all the smuggling between China and NK, have there been any reports of flu that the government is not mentioning? Some flu maps show NK as having at least one case but I haven’t seen any news articles reporting it.

    Thanks.