In the New Ledger Today: Japan’s Unendurable New Prime Minister
I’ve expanded some on why I believe Japan’s new Prime Minister is a noob. To be fair, I wasn’t fond of his predecessor, either.
Has anyone else noticed that the “allied” leaders who are the first to decry “unilateralism” and demand that we act more cooperatively are also the first to kick Americans in the teeth gratuitously? For the life of me, I can’t see how a suckle-and-bite approach to America is either diplomatic or multilateral, and I suspect that one day, Japan will need its own Lee Myung Bak to repair the damage Hatoyama may yet do to bilateral relations.
You might not know from reading this, but I loved Japan itself — wonderful, polite people; great beer and food; confusing but efficient trains; and gems of cultural and architectural beauty around almost every corner.
Update: In my piece, I noted that public opinion in Japan would probably prevent Hatoyama from shifting Japan’s North Korea policy substantially, and I see that even the Hanky agrees with this:
It appears, however, one cannot hope for an immediate transformation in Japan’s North Korea policy under a DPJ administration. During a campaign debate when Prime Minister Aso Taro attacked DPJ leader Hatoyama Yukio by claiming Hatoyama would avoid enacting laws to inspect North Korean cargo ships, Hatoyama responded by saying he would pass the laws if his party came to power, revealing an active posture on North Korean sanctions. Professor Io Jun, who has served as a policy advisor to the DPJ, says that when hardline opinion on the kidnapping issue is overwhelmingly against North Korea, it is highly likely than until the new administration settles in, the DPJ will be steering North Korea policy in a safe rather than bold direction.
The Daily NK also agrees, as a general matter, that policies aren’t likely to change, but it also picks up the point — which I also made — that North Korea may try to trade abductees for sanctions-busting:
North Korea may adopt an appeasement policy towards Japan in the midst of the Japanese power shift as North Korea has seemingly adopted appeasement policies towards the U.S. and South Korea in order to have international sanctions currently in place lifted. Therefore, if North Korea adopts a conciliatory policy, and works to solve the Japanese abduction issue, it is possible that the Democratic Party may work form a good relationship with the North.
Professor Lee Young Hwa of the Kansai University, an expert on North Korean issues, predicted that, “North Korea may solve partially the abduction issue in order to back the Democratic Party, which takes moderate policies towards North Korea.
Read the rest on your own.