As North Korea Emerges as a Prime Suspect, Discussion Turns to How South Korea Should Respond
As my sense grows that the Cheonan Incident could be one of the most consequential events on the Korean Peninsula since the provocations of 1968, it has become the event that eats most of my human bandwidth, and I apologize if I’ve been delinquent in blogging other stories. Here are some updates for today:
The Investigation
The man heading South Korea’s investigation into the cause of the blast that sank the Cheonan answers one of my first questions about the damage to the ship:
Yoon said the twisting of metal from the salvaged stern that was raised on Thursday indicated the blast had come from outside but the team will wait until the rest of the ship was raised and other evidence gathered before reaching a final conclusion.
“The Cheonan was also halved in the middle. Therefore, it is highly likely that a torpedo fired from a submarine or mine destroyed the ship,” military expert and former submarine captain Jung Sung wrote in the JoongAng Ilbo daily. [Reuters, Jon Herskovitz]
Herskovitz also reports that “[l]ocal media is increasingly pinning the blame on North Korea, in the absence of any other likely reasons for the explosion.” Yes, it sounds like the South Korea’s long national daydream is over at last.
Investigators are already combing the wreck and the sea floor for forensic evidence of a mine or torpedo attack:
The military has collected dozens of metal fragments from the breached section of the stern and inside the hull. It is analyzing them with a variety of high-tech devices, including three-dimensional cameras, liquid chromatography and gas chromatography systems, and a mass spectrometer.
The investigators are focusing on finding gunpowder residue on the cross section where the breach occurred following the explosion, which experts say appears to have been caused by a torpedo attack, possibly from North Korea.
The military said that it has yet to find any fragments and debris during its underwater search operations, which appear to have come from a torpedo or a sea mine. [Korea Herald]
More on the investigation:
Seoul has launched an international investigation involving eight Americans, three Australians and four Swedes to ensure the eventual findings cannot be disputed.
Navy officials said investigators were at the naval base in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometres (43 miles) south of Seoul, looking into the stern which had been cleared of ammunition and was illuminated inside.
They were also scrutinising some 170 pieces of the debris for clues to the cause of the disaster. [AFP]
By the way, I re-edited this post into this commentary at The New Ledger. Thanks to several of the commenters there for their thoughtful comments and persuasive analysis which led me to re-think my views and backed me away from favoring a particular modus operandi just yet.
The Consequences
Lee’s Foreign Minister is now suggesting that his government may refer this incident to the U.N. Security Council:
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan yesterday suggested that Seoul would consider referring the Cheonan case to the United Nations Security Council should the allegation of North Korea’s involvement turn out to be true.
“Though it is a mere scenario (at this point), should it prove that the North is responsible for the incident, we could think first of referring the matter to the U.N. Security Council,” Yu said in a television program.
“Another crucial thing is to reinforce and complement the joint defense posture between Korea and the United States. We will also try to address the matter through close cooperation with our allies with whom we maintain good relations, such as the European Union and Japan. [Korea Herald]
It would be gratifying to see Ban Ki-Moon forced to take a firm position on something, not to mention the sight of China trying to squirm out of this one. The State Department has gone so far as to concede that if North Korea did this, it would affect the six-party talks, but other likely consequences of North Korean guilt would be (or at least ought to be) re-adding it to the list of state sponsors of terrorism and a further tightening of trade and financial sanctions.
Deliberations and Politics
Don Kirk reports that “the sense among many Koreans” is that President Lee will look for a way to avoid confrontation by avoiding any firm conclusion that North Korea sank the Cheonan. I agree, but only to a point. I’m sure this is a headache Lee would rather not have. Up until now, he was doing a great job of staying in the background, letting Kim Jong Il make all the mistakes, and slowly letting the various subsidies to the North die natural deaths. In that context, the Cheonan attack — if it was an attack; this whole discussion is still hypothetical — might be a desperate move to break the financial and diplomatic siege in which Kim now finds himself. It’s also clear that Lee, being the “pragmatic” sort, is well aware that military tensions have much more potential to harm South Korea’s economy than North Korea’s, which is why I don’t think he’ll use the military option.
I don’t go so far as to invest belief in any of the cover-up theories coming from the left or the right, and frankly, if he was, I don’t think he’d have invited so much international participation in the current investigation. It seems more likely to me that Lee already thinks the North Koreans did this and wants to have that added international credibility before he accuses North Korea, cuts off the aid, and then squanders those budget appropriations on extending his canal to Cheju Island.
No doubt mindful that South Korea’s next round of mid-term elections is scheduled for June 2nd, Lee is now forced into a very careful balancing act — trying not to look weak (thereby losing support to the conservative Liberty Forward Party) while trying not to raise tensions too fast and scare voters (thereby losing support to the leftist Democratic Party). Lee’s next step is to address the nation, offer his condolences to the families of the dead, and appeal for unity. He will also meet with the heads of the two main opposition parties to talk about the incident. I wish him much luck with that. I’d be gratified to see evidence that South Korea is governable in a moment of national crisis, especially one that coincides with an election.