Open Sources

I’ve said that an uprising along the lines of what’s going on in Egypt is implausible in North Korea. In the case of China, however, it’s unlikely (for now) but not implausible. And apparently, the Chinese government agrees:

Newspapers can only publish accounts of the protests from the official Xinhua News Service, a policy often invoked on stories the government considers sensitive. Censors have blocked the ability to search the term “Egypt” on microblogging sites, and user comments that draw parallels to China have been deleted from Internet forums.

While there is little chance the protests could spark demonstrations in China, the extent to which the long-ruling Communist Party is censoring the story underscores how wary it is of any potential source of unrest that might threaten its hold on power.

“Of course, the government doesn’t want to see more comments on (the protests), because stability is what they want,” said Zhan Jian, a professor with the Media Department at the China Youth University for Political Sciences.

A favorite expression of mine is that to solve a problem, sometimes you have to make it bigger. One very nifty solution to the North Korean problem would be to quietly work toward bumping off North Korea’s sponsor. As an added bonus, a billion people would acquire the right to read whatever news they want.

But then, I’d assumed a few days ago that Mubarak was a goner and that we were headed for an Egyptian Hamasistan. Now, things look much murkier. For one thing, plenty of us probably underestimated Mubarak’s wiliness. For another, the military now holds the upper hand, and what began as a popular uprising is beginning to look more like a coup. If that creates some breathing space for a more liberal opposition or at least a less authoritarian regime to consolidate, it may be for the best. Chaos only helps the worst elements.

I don’t think all hope is lost, and the stakes are great. Egypt is the Arab world’s most populous country and its cultural heart. Whether it goes the way of Gaza or (for all its faults) the way of Turkey, the consequences would be vast. I pray that our State Department and CIA are quietly flooding the liberal opposition — the kind that would hold free elections even after it takes power — with cash and good advice between now and September, when presidential elections are scheduled.

The real question is whether Egyptian society has evolved to the point where it can create a sustainable democracy (unsustainable democracies — which begin with strong “revolutionary” mandates but which are based on angry, intolerant, and authoritarian impules — tend to become the worst tyrannies). Iraq, with its ethnic and sectarian curses, had to cull off a lot of angry young men and suffer some painful lessons to become a marginal case.

You know, I don’t get too worried when Lee Myung Bak talks about holding a summit with Kim Jong Il, because I’m fairly certain that the offer is strictly cosmetic. What worries me more is that a politician as shrewd and well-informed as Lee has concluded, so soon after the shelling of Yongpyeong and the sinking of the Cheonan, that such an offer has cosmetic value at all.

Speaking of things people say, and which I hope they don’t really mean ….

“We have 28,500 troops on the Korean Peninsula,” [Pentagon] spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters. “We’ve got, I think, north of 50,000 troops in Japan. So we have significant assets already there. Over the long-term lay-down of our forces in the Pacific, we are looking at ways to even bolster that, not necessarily in Korea and Japan, but along the Pacific Rim, particularly in Southeast Asia.

It’s possible, of course, to bolster a force somewhere without stationing more American infantry there. Yes, there are places (Afghanistan) where the hard slog of infantry combat is essential to protecting our national security. But in places like Korea, the mission is more about power projection and deterrence. My hope is that this statement is mostly aimed at persuading China that Kim Jong Il is a liability.

Case closed! Kim Jong Eun and Kim Jong Il wear matching hats and jackets! What else do you need to know?

It’s been a very cold winter in North Korea, and I believe that in spite of the fact that the Choson Sinbo is reporting it. The regime is preparing the people for another hungry year because the deep freeze may hurt food production. But what they never mention is that in today’s global economy, food is cheap, and even countries with rudimentary economies can import enough food to feed their people. The only real prerequisites are basic security and a distribution system that allows the supply to find the demand.

I’ve linked to articles about Song Byeok before (seventh item), but this report on him is so good that I can’t pass it up. Song’s art is subversive in a way that’s delectably churlish. Seeing it reinforces my faith in the irrepressible human spirit. Look at all of the experiences that have scarred this man, and imagine him as a Winston Smith figure at the very heart of North Korea’s mental regimentation. And let’s face it — not even South Korea typically does political satire this well. And yet here is a man within whom dissent and satire could grow from such barren earth.

This is also another step forward for the formation of a dissident culture in exile. Eventually, that culture will take root at its source. It may even pose a threat to the regime’s survival in a decade or two, if it’s still with us by then.