Light Blogging for a While
THE OTHER PARTS OF MY LIFE HAVE CROWDED OUT the part I don’t get paid to do recently. Sorry – that might continue for a while longer.
NORTH KOREA, WHICH WAS REMOVED from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on October 11, 2008, is targeting South Korea-based human rights activists for assassination.
AN INTERESTING EPILOGUE to a Chinese investor’s criticism of North Korea.
MORE ASMA CRAP about Ri Sol Ju: “Just days after triggering a debate over whether she was carrying a genuine Lady Dior Clutch bag or a “Dior-style” bag, Ri Sol-ju was on Sunday shown on North Korean television wearing a black trouser suit and jacket and white shoes.” The Telegraph’s Justin Riall then leaps to the conclusion that Ms. Ri’s “flamboyant appearances” and her husband’s Swiss education (which, by all signs, made on him) mean that he “is attempting to raise the aspirations and living standards of the North Korean people.” Yeah, either that or it means that North Korean society is more elitist and stratified than ever, only less inhibited about it. For a more balanced view, see Chico Harlan’s take in the Washington Post.
Personally, what I’ve noticed about North Korea is that they’ve kept quiet as during the height of the election season, which suggests enough intelligence to not to become the topic of conversation, and might be interpreted as a sign of who they’d like to see win. Of course, they seem to be going full-bore with their nuclear program, so a cooperative and distracted press is part of the reason for why North Korea hasn’t become a campaign issue.
Joshua you’ve seen that? http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/548873.html
Yes, but I don’t find it persuasive. The Hankyoreh is a far-left news outlet whose views vary between anti-anti-North Korean and pro-North Korean. It routinely publishes pro-North Korean missives and conspiracy theories. Over the last two years, it has flogged a whole series competing and questionable theories (search terms: “Cheonan scientists”) that share nothing but an inflexible determination to absolve Kim Jong Il. So if my default position is skeptical, that’s why.
You can see an abstract (or, if so inclined, buy the whole “study”) here. I could summarize it thusly: we analyzed seismic waves from the blast — but no other physical, documentary, or circumstantial evidence — and conclude that an underwater explosion of about this magnitude could also have been caused by a mine. The authors then suggest that the ROK Navy simply “abandoned” similar mines off its own coasts! (I’d like to know what research supports their statement that the mines were “abandoned;” the abstract doesn’t suggest that the study examined anything but raw seismic data from three stations.) Never mind that this would have been the first accidental mine discharge in one of the world’s busiest sea lanes, decades after the mines were removed. Nothing in the abstract hints at any evidence to contradict the international report’s findings that a North Korean torpedo caused the explosion.
Much like the 9/11 conspiracy theories, we see multiple contradictory 3/26 conspiracy theories in circulation, all of them persistent among those who want to believe them for emotional reasons. Of course, Hanky readers will eat this shit up, but the Hanky’s real target here is probably a different group. I suspect this is deliberate disinformation aimed at a mostly apolitical, disengaged bloc of South Korean swing voters who don’t know much about the Cheonan incident, who (mostly for historical reasons) distrust anything their government says, and who have a well-established difficulty believing that North Korea could do any evil, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. The idea is to create just enough doubt to prevent the hearer from believing anything at all.
Why do the North Koreans deny the attack on the Cheonan? Why don’t they justify it and brag about it?
Maybe because acknowledging the attack would force even China and Russia to agree to UN sanctions and throw off China’s delicate balancing act between the two Koreas.
Russia and China wouldn’t agree to sanctions. They’d call for restraint on all sides.
Sanctions or no, an admission of guilt would complicate the two countires’ relationship with important trade partner South Korea. North Korea is a bully. Bullies may brag to classmates on the playground and on the bus, but they lie through their teeth when confronted by adults.
Josh,
OMG, I hope you won’t take too much time off. I literally live for your blog. Each morning when I awake, I check in to see what has happened overnight in Korea. Your blog is my primary source for news. I feel like I will die if your blog goes off-line. Please, please, please don’t stop blogging. For the love of God, please don’t stop.
Sonagi, I didn’t ask why they don’t admit guilt. I asked why they don’t brag about it, the way they brag about shelling Yeongyeong island, where they killed two marines and two civilians.
Since North Korea could not plausibly deny the shelling, why not brag and up your street cred? Plausible denial was a feasible choice in response to the Cheonan investigation, and a best choice for North Korea, which had nothing to gain by admitting guilt through bragging, and would only risk negative consequences from the US, South Korean governments in public, the Chinese and Russian government siin private, and weaken the political power of the 5th column in South Korea.