Open Sources, March 3, 2014
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CHOE PURGED, TOO? Several readers have pointed me to this Korea Herald story, which cites Free North Korea Radio, reporting that Choe Ryong-Hoe has now been purged (see also). We’ll probably have a better idea in a few days (weeks at most) whether that’s true, but North Korea Leadership Watch reports that Choe has made fewer public appearances recently, so the report seems plausible enough. If it is true, Choe was supposed to be Kim Jong Un’s most important adult supervisor after Jang Song Thaek’s execution. It would also be another sign of instability within the top ranks of the regime.
Another reason to celebrate, if this report is true, would be the attention and recognition it would mean for Free North Korea Radio, which is in desperate need of your donations to stay on the air. You can make a tax-deductible donation here, through the Defense Forum Foundation.
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NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN: So, if I could ask John Short two brief questions, they would be: (1) Did anything at all good come of your visit, and (2) was it worth it? Please, people, for the love of God, unless you’re a North Korean with a mission worth dying for, the guile and ability to blend in, and a cyanide capsule, stay out of North Korea.
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THE OLD FALSE HOPE was that Jang Song-Taek was reforming North Korea’s economy. Judging by this paper at 38 North — which is actually a very interesting read — the new false hope is that Jang’s execution will clear the way to reform, but Jang was never a reformer anyway.
I certainly never believed that Jang was a reformer. Anything is possible, I suppose, but there’s zero evidence at this point that Kim Jong Un has any intention of liberalizing North Korea’s economy, or improving the living standards of anyone in North Korea except for himself and a few cronies.
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“GETTING CHINA TO ENFORCE NORTH KOREA SANCTIONS” is the title of this recent paper at the Yonsei Journal of International Studies. I wish I’d seen it earlier, but it’s well worth reading for its frank discussion of China’s non-enforcement of sanctions, its plausible explanations of the mechanics of the problem, and its detailed discussions of several potential levers to change that. The one they don’t discuss is giving Taiwan and Japan Trident submarines fully loaded with hydrogen-bomb-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, but that may be a discussion for another day.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES editorializes on the COI report, but ends up saying nothing except that the thugs running North Korea ought to be brought to justice some day, possibly after Ban Ki-Moon surreptitiously sprinkles pixie dust out the bottom of his trouser-leg during a visit to Pyongyang, thereby rendering that plan somehow plausible.
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HMMMM:
South Korea launched a consultative body [last] Tuesday with 21 foreign diplomatic missions here to boost coordination in dealing with North Korea, Seoul’s foreign ministry said. The Peninsula Club comprised of 21 foreign diplomatic missions stationed here but in charge of both Koreas was officially launched in the day when they hold their first gathering. The represented countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Guatemala, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, the European Union, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
Diverse inter-Korean issues as well as the North Korean situation would be on the table, according to the ministry.”There have been a consensus on the need for the discussions about the shaky future of the Korean Peninsula,” Seoul’s Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se was quoted by the ministry as saying in his congratulatory remarks. “It is important to exchange hands-on experiences and opinions on the North Korean situation with the member countries here, while maintaining close cooperative relations as best partners for the achievement of national reunification.” [Yonhap]
With Park Geun-Hye, I always get the sense that she’s smart, conniving, methodical, and decisive about pursuing goals that only she and six other people really understand.
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SOUNDS LIKE “SLANDER” TO ME: Of course, you could say that when North Korea merely expresses “disappointment” at the “present regime” in South Korea, that’s a relative improvement over past rhetoric. On the other hand, calling for the “punishment of masterminds of illegal interference” in South Korea’s election is epic irony, and referring to South Korea’s “government” with scare quotes is an obvious challenge to its legitimacy.
Is there any question how North Korea would react if South Korea questioned the legitimacy of Kim Jong Un’s rule based on the fundamental unfairness of its elections or the lack of freedom of thought in North Korea? This is the basic structural flaw of all diplomacy with North Korea: the agreed terms are never binding on North Korea.
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THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ARTICLES in this journal, posted by Sino-NK and edited by Christopher Green. The ones about meth, yuanization, and Hyesan were particularly worth reading.