Guest Post: Irrational Exuberance Redux: North Korea and its nuclear weapons, goals, and intentions
[The following guest post is submitted by Dr. Tara O, the author of this book, and whose bio you can read here.]
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman, called the overvaluation of the dot-com market “irrational exuberance” in 1996. The term was used again to describe the housing bubble of 2004 through 2007 by Yale Professor Robert Schiller. Now, here is another situation ripe for the term—the expectation that Kim Jong-un will give up his nuclear weapons. This irrational exuberance is a bubble that also is likely to burst.
The headlines read:
“North Korea willing to accept ‘complete denuclearization’ without conditions, Moon says.”
“North Korea drops withdrawal of US forces as condition of denuclearization, Moon says”
“North and South Korea are preparing to announce a permanent end to their war – which has run since 1950”
At first glance, it sounds too good to be true. Well, it is.
First, who is actually saying these phrases? President Moon Jae-in, not Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un certainly can speak for himself and as the monopolizer of communications and information in North Korea, he would have no problem expressing his positions. Even during the Moon-Kim meeting, Kim never uttered the word “denuclearization” and it was only Moon who said “denuclearization” but not of “North Korea,” but of the “Korean Peninsula.”
Second, the actual term used is “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” not “denuclearization of North Korea.” When we hear the word “denuclearization,” we mean North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons. However, “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” is what North Korea has long said, and the two ideas are very different. North Korea wants “denuclearization” of South Korea (South Korea is the part of the “Korean Peninsula” that it wants to focus on). South Korea does not have nuclear weapons, but it does have civilian nuclear energy, and more importantly, it has the U.S. nuclear umbrella through extended deterrence. What North Korea wants is the removal of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and the U.S. military capability away from not only South Korea but the region. That is hardly denuclearization of North Korea. It does imply removing the U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula and ending the alliance.
The “complete” could also mean the extension of denuclearization to the United States, in which case, what Kim really wants is a nuclear arms control negotiation with the U.S., which in turn means he wants to be recognized as a nuclear power. This is in line with what he has told people in North Korea—that North Korea will be recognized as a nuclear power. North Koreans believe that Kim’s meeting with Trump is about North Korea being recognized as a nuclear power.
For Moon’s part, despite South Korea not having nuclear weapons, he has gone above and beyond into the energy sector. He already declared a nuclear energy exit for South Korea soon after he became the president of South Korea, halting the construction of nuclear power plants in the middle of construction (later resumed after much confusion and cost) and shutting down some nuclear power plants, despite not being able to meet the total South Korean energy demand during the last winter. But the energy sector is not what we mean by “denuclearization.” Again, it is dismantlement of nuclear weapons of North Korea. For a genuine peace to occur, the threat from North Korea must dissipate and disappear.
Contrary to the news headlines and the lack of direct wording in the Panmunjeom Declaration, North Korea has not dropped its demand to remove U.S. forces. The removal of troops is said in a different way—by placing “Korean Peninsula” after “denuclearization,” as pointed out above. Another way to phrase the removal of U.S. troops is a “peace agreement.” This is not about peace. It is doublespeak for breaking the alliance. It takes away the justification for the U.S. troop presence, which is to deter North Korean attack, as occurred on June 25, 1950, and should deterrence fail, then to defend South Korea. Besides, why does North Korea want to leave out a key belligerent, South Korea, and insist on signing it only with the U.S?
The talk of “ending the Armistice” to build a peace regime also has other ramifications. It would dispense with the need for the UN Command Military Armistice Commission (UNCMAC) and the Neutral National Supervisory Commission (NNSC). Currently, the mission of the UNCMAC is to supervise the Armistice Agreement and provide a mechanism to discuss truce violations. The NNSC’s mission is to investigate a portion of the violations of the Armistice. When the Gaesong Industrial Complex and the Mount Geumgang tourism were operational, the details of the vehicles and vehicle contents crossing through the West and East Corridors of the DMZ were reported to the UNC MAC. Thus, UNC MAC ceasing to operate has sanctions-monitoring implications.
The term “hostile act” in land, sea, and air” in the Panmunjeom Declaration refers to a host of activities, including the military exercises. Often the focus is on ROK-U.S. combined military exercises, but North Korea also conducts military exercises annually. There are key differences. The North Korean military exercises are offensive in nature and are not transparent—rarely are they covered by the media. By contrast, the ROK-U.S. exercises are defensive, and in response to North Korea’s offensive ones, and encourage transparency, which is why the there’s so much news coverage of them. The reason for the ROK-U.S. military exercises is to train and practice in case North Korea attacks. Unless there are substantial actions to reduce the North Korean threat, such as North Korea halting its military exercises and moving its military forces away from the border with South Korea, it is premature and out of order.
The establishment of the “Peace Zone” in the West Sea is also fraught with danger. The West Sea and the five islands (including the island of Yeonpyeong, the island that North Korean artillery bombarded in 2010) are protected by the ROK Navy and Marines. Is Moon attempting to remove the ROK military away from this “peace zone” to be established? If so, then who will protect the island residents and the fishermen as well as the tourists to these islands from another North Korean artillery attack or even an invasion? The declaration even mentions the South-North joint use of the Han River Estuary, a traditional invasion route of various invaders to Seoul throughout Korea’s history.
The threat from North Korea has not gone away. A threat is defined by capabilities and intentions. North Korea has the world’s fourth-largest military, 70 percent of which is deployed near the border with South Korea. It has thousands of artillery pieces along the DMZ. It has chemical and biological weapons and showed the world its willingness to use chemical weapons by killing Kim Jong-nam with VX nerve agent at an airport in Malaysia in February 2017. North Korea has the world’s largest special forces, whose mission includes infiltrating South Korea and creating a second battlefront in the rear area. North Korea’s cyber attack capabilities have only increased over time. In fact, while Moon and Kim met on April 27, 2018, North Korea’s Hidden Cobra hackers were busy attacking other countries, including their financial, health, and entertainment industries. The role of North Korea’s United Front Department is not only handling the inter-Korean dialogues, but also overtly creating pro-North Korea groups within South Korea for subversion.
North Korea has not changed its goal of unifying Korea under its own rule. It only changed the term for the interim step from “Goryeo Federation” to “ low-level federation.” Ironically, President Moon also wants “low-level federation,” and had publicly said he would achieve it even if he has to change the ROK constitution to do it. In fact, the Moon administration’s constitutional reform efforts were moving at full speed up until recently when they failed to move forward at the National Assembly. For a statement by the Truth Forum, a university student organization opposing the constitutional reform, see here. However, President Moon has vowed to forge ahead with the draft items through budget and administration, and instructed the ministries and agencies to implement them anyway.
Given that there has been no change to North Korea’s capabilities and its intent, to talk about discarding the Armistice or signing a “peace treaty” is premature and out of order.
While the use of the seductive term “peace” gives some people a sense of irrational exuberance, we need to be clear-headed about the reality of the situation.