North Korea: Sorry We Shelled Your “Human Shields”
You have to admit that it was pretty diabolical of Lee Myung Bak to have planted those human shields in their own villages and homes years before he was even inaugurated. In fact, the two civilians who were actually killed were construction workers on the ROK Marine post, but the given the North’s shelling of civilian neighborhoods, it’s lucky there weren’t a lot more “human shields” killed:
The North really does have a special gift for adding insult to injury. Still, just try to fathom the reaction to this if there had been no North Korean shelling, and a single American shell had gone astray instead.
Separately, the North is also making veiled threats against the U.S. carrier battle group that’s now headed for the Yellow Sea:
“If the U.S. brings its carrier to the West Sea of Korea at last, no one can predict the ensuing consequences,” the report said, using the Korean name for the Yellow Sea.
You know, given what the North has shown itself to be capable recently, I wouldn’t dismiss this as an empty threat. I think the danger of a severe escalation is more grave than even most Washington insiders tend to believe. What if the North tried to torpedo one of our ships? Or actually did? Do you suppose we’re really prepared to respond with a conventional attack? I say this because I see the North’s recent behavior as indicative of economic and political desperation. It may mean, among other things, that Plan B is working, the harvest has failed again, and that the North Korean people detest Kim Jong Eun. Whoever is running North Korea today seems convinced that a limited conventional war is the only thing that can save their grip on power. Especially under these circumstances, I’m not a big believer in shows of conventional force as a response to an actual attack. They put U.S. forces at risk, but their deterrent and punitive effect is questionable. Instead, I prefer the direction President Lee is headed:
The South Korean government plans to retaliate with words as ammunition, believing a military strike would be frowned upon by the international community. Now-former Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said on Wednesday at a National Assembly hearing that “a psychological war is ongoing, and we will continue that war but I cannot detail how that will take place. The newly launched plan for propaganda will likely be in the form of fliers, which a government source said “are already printed.
The fliers will be flown into North Korean territory on giant balloons, a tactic that civilian groups have used in the past to send propaganda fliers, usually to tell North Koreans about life in South Korea and appeal to them to leave their country. “[North Korea] will have no idea whether it came from civil groups or the government,” a South Korean government official yesterday told JoongAng Ilbo.
Yeah, at least until it was reported in the Joongang Ilbo and attributed to a government source. This idea is a step up from putting big sign boards along the DMZ. It’s hard to say how many minds can be changed by leaflets, but it may well force a significant redeployment of North Korean army units to collect all of that subversive litter. As a tool of persuasion, however, it has far less potential than the idea of giving the North Korean people cheap international and domestic cell phone service. Let’s hope this is just a first step. Propaganda is never more effective than when it comes from someone you know and believe.
Update: The Joongang Ilbo provides this map of the locations shelled. I ask you, what military purpose could possibly have justified shelling a health center, an inn, or the “History Museum of Croaker?”
Update: Watch this CNN correspondent try to dramatize the “danger” of being caught between the riot police and a bunch of pissed-off right-wing ajjoshis. In most cases, South Korean protests are ritualistic street theater where the risk of injury is no greater than your average pillow fight. At times, however, people do show up with bamboo poles, iron pipes, rocks, and the occasional home-made flamethrower.
The head bands say, “Restore our honor.” Hat tip to a reader.
It’s still hard for me to gauge the general South Korean reaction to this. A large minority demands military escalation today, but their support would waver it if the North upped the ante again. In most places, the Silent Majority fears dramatic policy changes and the perception of government overreach. There is a radical minority of South Koreans, of course, who will excuse everything the North does. Some will grow up, and some won’t, but that has little to do with reality and everything to do with emotion. For most South Koreans, coming to grips with the pathology of North Korea will be a gradual process, and may take longer than the North’s descent into Götterdämmerung.
Only 2 men out of the small pool of Koreans I’m around in South Korea right now favor military escalation. Probably a majority of them (a rough 50%) seem to favor giving at least self-doubt credence to the idea the artillery attack was “caused” by the South’s own artillery practice. That 45% article does not match the teachers I talked to…
I have to say that your blogging has in part reduced my pessimism regarding the situation. I’ve been pessimistic not because of the potential for runaway escalation but because Obama is likely to back down if things go kinetic. By backing down and allowing China to fill the political vacuum with their hegemony, the US risks seeing allies distance themselves in a desperate form of self-preservation. Like many Americans I’m not thrilled with being the ‘neighborhood cop’ that receives nothing but enmity for our efforts but I realize our presence is in part due to China’s willingness to become the new ‘cop,’ one less benign.
I sincerely hope SK and the US invest heavily in the type of subversive tactics that you advocate in order to destabilize the Kim mafia. Last night I also thought of another low cost item that might help. Dropping in DAP’s (Digital Audio Players) would be much more effective than fliers I believe.
They could be loaded with history, tech articles, and, as strange as it may seem, volumes of music. Music undoubtedly played a part, however small, in corroding the power of the USSR. Perhaps it might as well in the North.
The only missing part here and with the cell phone idea is the question of how citizens North would recharge these goodies. Solar mats? Hand-crank gens?
Enmity plus hundreds of billions of dollars in economic opportunity that comes about from the stability and, secondarily, economic development that results from being said “neighborhood cop,” not to mention the feel-goodness of allies eventually emulating the democratic values we hold dear. Oh, and the pretty effective insurance policy that our neighborhood beat doesn’t turn into a massive war zone again, which would probably drag in American anyhow.
So there’s that.
More about those “pissed-off right-wing ajjoshis” from the AP (via NPR):
I think there are some additional propaganda steps that could be taken. A good message to reassure the home front and demoralize the DPRK artillery would be to announce that every effort will be made to reduce the counterbattery response time. Perhaps the new defense minister could publicly commit to an eventual goal of having the first counter shot fired off before the first DPRK shot lands. During the cold war, strategic air command made quite a point of setting all sorts of endurance flight records to convince the soviets our bombers were ready to go and would get through. Nowadays, there are drones, so if ROK wanted a 24/7 net of cameras on the DPRK artillery firing positions, such a technologically advanced video-game playing nation shouldn’t find that too hard to do, as it only takes money and will. They could also task some engineering schools with rigging some surveying lasers to the drones to “increase the accuracy” of counterbattery fire. Likewise, they could publicly research using visible lasers or radar to judge the wind and air conditions the 155mm rounds would fly through. Of course, the drone missiles attacking those trucks in Afganistan used similar lasers, so the South should play that up in an effort to reassure the folks at home and make the MLRS operators a bit more reluctant. Basically, a big campaign to convince the NK artillery corps that they have the worst job in the army is called for. Worse than the prison camp guards who can’t steal as much food, worse than the border guards freezing on the Yalu who make money on bribes and smuggling, worse than the infantry who will get close enough only to shoot enemy soldiers not civilians, worse than the radio and propaganda teams who might be left unbombed so the ROK can gather intel by listening to them, worse than KJI’s pleasure squads who get to live a life of relative luxury in gilded cages, worse even than the tank drivers who will be out front and thus might have a chance to surrender before they get bombed if the shooting starts. The ROK message to the DPRK artillery should be that they have special status not because the regime values them, but because the regime wants to distract them from the fact they need somebody to do a job that involves a lot of hiding and scurrying like rats, cockroaches or foreigners.
Another leaflet with a message like “If you liked how well he handled money, just wait until you hear about how the bright young light, Kim Jong Eun provided on the spot guidance to the batteries facing Yeonpyeong-do!” would also be great.
An article in the “Independent” is reporting that up to 20,000 construction workers located in the Far East of Russia along with their handlers have left their jobs after being called back to north Korea. Supposedly to “prepare for war”.
I know in the past some diplomats, etc. have been told to return when tensions increase, but a large number of health males, especially ones that are making money for the regime, returning should raise some eyebrows.
China is calling for an emergency meeting – this without much uproar in South Korea and a toned down message from the US. My impression has been that China has to be drug into this type of meeting when the North acts up and only goes when the pressure in the press and street and other governments rises.
There is also news that North Korea has recalled North Koreans abroad like the loggers in Russia.
What is going on with China near the border? Any troop or border security upgrades? Boots moving on the ground?
China would be more in tune with the internal dynamics in North Korea. They might not know too much about the potential for a collapse, but they would know more than others.
My wife and sons went to Seoul this weekend to get on a USO tour to the DMZ. All DMZ tours are cancelled. Now I know why:
Indeed. I like it. You shoot artillery, we tell your people that KJI is a ruthless self-serving dictator and not a human god.
“In case the enemy attacks our territory and people again, we will thoroughly retaliate to ensure that the enemy cannot provoke again,” says Kim Kwan-Jin, South Korea’s new DefMin.
But the Yonhap news agency says North Korea has increased its multiple-launch rockets capable of hitting Seoul. There are now about 5,200.
The foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan will visit Hillary Clinton Monday. The Chinese foreign ministry, which won’t be represented, expects that meeting to ease tensions and promote dialog.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/12/02/world/asia/AP-AS-Koreas-Clash.html?ref=world