North Korea Isn’t Egypt
So in response to some questions I’ve received via e-mail and this, no, what’s happening in Egypt can’t happen in North Korea, at least not in the foreseeable future. The two systems are not remotely comparable.
Few of Mubarak’s soldiers would kill civilians if ordered to do so. The Egyptian people know this, which means he’s doomed. Mubarak is a dictator, but he’s merely an authoritarian dictator, not a totalitarian on the model of the leaders of Burma, North Korea, China, or Saudi Arabia. His control of ideas in his society has been largely ineffective since the invention of the internet. There is an organized opposition, although it lacked the capacity to challenge the regime until recently.
North Korean soldiers would kill civilians by the thousands if ordered. The North Korean people know this, which is why few challenge the state openly. It’s also why the system can only be overthrown by force of arms. Kim Jong Il is the most totalitarian of dictators in the wide spectrum of dictatorship. His control of ideas, though weakening, remains effective enough to slow their spread and isolate the people from each other. There is no internet as we know it, and there is no significant organized opposition. The only group with the capacity to challenge the state is a hypothetical cabal of military mutineers.
The best outcome we can hope for in Egypt would be the speedy appointment of a provisional government backed by the army, the departure of Mubarak immediately thereafter, and a fixed timetable for elections. That timetable ought to be long enough to give a liberal democratic opposition enough time to campaign, gather strength, and make its case against the Muslim Brotherhood turning Egypt into a Sunni Arab Iran. But as time passes, there will be more violence and the opposition will radicalize. The only way I see to stop this cycle would be to change the subject and take the momentum out of the demonstrations, and the only way I see to do this an announcement that Mubarak will cede power on a prompt and certain date.
However, let’s not end this on a negative note. Yes, the cases are fundamentally different; yes the North Korean military and security services are a whole other degree of brutal, yes there is no circulation of information worthy of the name, no there is no internet outside the hastily conveived Pyongyang press center…
But what we can take away from all this is that information is key. Read the latest Noland and Haggard book, and it screams at you; we need to keep plying the North Korean borders with information: throw it at them left and right; never stop; never give up. Force of arms may be the most likely way for this all to end, but I don’t think it is the only possibility.
But Egypt gave me hope….
The entire Mediterranean is on fire.
Seems to me that when Iran had its protest and violent confrontations a year or so ago that the administration pretty much had a hands off approach. Now it seems that the administration is throwing Mubarak under the bus.
I do think the uprisings currently underway across North Africa and in the Middle East – along with the examples from the fall of communism in Europe – remind us that collapse can come seemingly at any time and in a wide variety of forms.
It is natural for us to only imagine force of arms as the method of radical change, but in reality, the parameters of collapse have happened at both extremes.
We also learn something from these events like in Egypt: Power does ultimately rest within the people governed – not the governor. Even in a totalitarian state. Meaning – You cannot rule over a people who refuse to be ruled over – no matter how iron your fist is.
You can’t analyze all these events and come up with a formula that allows us to predict when and how a people will throw down their own government. You can’t predict how many people it will take to cause collapse. We’ve even seen that you can’t predict whether it will come with much violence or not. — Most of it depends on what the “silent majority” is willing to allow. Those are the majority of citizens that represent “the will of the people.”
North Korea is a unique state. It is baffling how long and how much the North Korean people have withstood suffering. Who knows how much longer they will put up with it?
But the end could come at any time and take a wide, wide variety of forms.
For example, let’s say a small uprising got reported enough around the nation, and the “silent majority” became more activated and began refusing to comply with the regime. But, the regime still had the support of large units of military, and those units go out through the countryside slaughtering people — and rather than causing extreme anger among the masses and leading average citizens to throw their lives to the wind and say “Enough is enough!!!” – the slaughter works and the silent majority decides to go back to being silent and compliant:
What could also happen is that discontent for the regime, and what it just did, could lead to general support for a prolonged, guerrilla campaign against the regime that eventually leads to collapse as the masses slowly build up courage and strength to resist. (Like we’ve seen happen in colonial settings in the past).
I think Egypt and current events in that region should remind us of how communism fell in Europe – and more specifically – what people were saying and thinking outside of that area in the years preceding it.
Everyone was convinced World War III was inevitable. If you had told them the Soviet Union would pretty much collapse quietly along with most of the other Eastern European communist states – people would have thought you were an idiot….and they would have had ample material to build their case against you. But, that is what did happen…
usinkorea, I was never convinced World War III was inevitable. I’m still not convinced. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won’t.
coty07, the context was different. The Iranian regime is unfriendly to us. We don’t even have diplomatic relations. The Egyptian regime is an ally, one of our largest aid recipients.
Glans, I am well aware of the difference, that Iran is unfriendly to us etc., which is why I am mystified that it seems that we are throwing an ally in Egypt and specifically Mubarak under the bus with some in the administration saying he should resign, although it seems to be a moot point at the time I am writing this.
The US position on events in Egypt much depends on what the post Mubarak government is going to look like: If we know enough to predict, and it looks like an Islamic state, highly anti-US state is going to emerge, like another Iran, then supporting the status quo might be reasonable.
But, if greater democracy with continued peace with Israel is a likely result of the protests, then we should support that.
Another key factor is not alienating the winning group if our influence in shaping things is too small (as it usually is).
Basically, the for the US is — avoiding radicalization of Egypt (and these other nations undergoing turmoil).