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Open Sources: Lugar Sounds Cautious Note on Food Aid

I hope he means it:

“Any resumption of U.S. food aid to North Korea should be contingent on North Korea allowing access and accountability by monitors in accordance with international standards,” Sen. Richard Lugar (R-In) said in a statement. “It is essential to ensure that the U.S. assistance is actually received by hungry North Korean children and their families rather than reinforcing the North Korean military whose care is already a priority over the rest of the population.”

More here. I like Dick Lugar as a person, but he sometimes acts like the Junior Senator from the State Department. I wonder if the rising threat of a primary challenge from the right is causing him to take more strident positions. I can’t imagine that the people of Indiana would think highly of the idea of feeding the North Korean army this year. In the past, of course, we’ve extracted some modest concessions from the North Koreans on monitoring, only to see North Korea renege on those concessions within a few months and refuse further aid. North Korea’s obstructionism of foreign food aid has been so determined that I’ve long inclined to the view that North Korea wants to keep certain political classes of its population on the verge of starvation (or worse) as a tool of political control.

We’ll know that the regime is serious about transparency when it allows aid workers to distribute and monitor aid distribution, and — key point — to stay long enough to conduct long-term nutritional surveys. Until then, we’d be better off organizing and assisting money smugglers who can harness the power of the market to draw food toward those North Koreans who need it most.

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Here’s another story on the contracting city limits of Pyongyang, which offers varying explanations about why North Korea is doing this.

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Over to you, Kushibo: “Meng Jianzhu, China’s public security minister, congratulated Kim’s youngest son Jong-un on his appointment as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission last year, “hailing the successful solution of the issue of succession to the Korean revolution,” KCNA news agency reported.” This is followed by some “expert” interpretations of what “succession” means in this context, but I don’t find those interpretations very persuasive.

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Wow. That’s a lot of snow.

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Have a look at the leaflets that are presently falling on North Korea.

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Veterans remember Chipyeong-ni: “In the aftermath of Chipyong-ni, the (Chinese) Army limped north,” he said. “It was the last Chinese offensive of the Korean War, and within four months the Chinese high command requested truce talks. The next time an American president goes to Beijing, we should ask Yo Yo Ma to play a sonata in remembrance of their bravery.

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  3. Over to you, Kushibo

    Hmm… I’d really like to see which KCNA report they’re referring to. This one (here in Chosŏnŏ) doesn’t really bear out that interpretation:

    Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly, met and had a friendly talk with Meng Jianzhu, minister of Public Security who is state councilor of the People’s Republic of China, and his party at the Mansudae Assembly Hall Monday.

    Meng said that the Sino-DPRK friendly relations sealed in blood are fraternal and comradely.

    He underscored the need to strengthen and develop the Sino-DPRK relations provided by the leaders of the elder generations of the two countries generation after generation.

    He noted that his visits to several places during his stay in the DPRK provided an opportunity to know well about the shining achievements made by the Korean people in the building of a thriving socialist nation by displaying the revolutionary fighting spirit and traits.

    He expressed belief that under the wise leadership of Kim Jong Il the Korean people would register greater success in the future, too.

    It would seem Mr Maeng Kŏnju, according to the KCNA, seems to think that Kim Jong-il will be the one leading North Korea 앞으로 (in the future).

    But that doesn’t matter when we have an agenda to foist, or at least reputations to preserve. From the article Joshua linked:

    “(But) we can interpret that as a sign of acceptance on the part of China’s political and power elite with regards to North Korea’s succession,” said Park Young-ho, of the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

    In other words: it says one thing, but we can “interpret” that to mean that other, different thing we’ve already decided it means. In other other words, “These are not the droids you’re looking for.”

    Thank you, but I’ll stick to the manifest content of these dreamy pronouncements.

    I’ll reiterate: I do believe that someone is trying to push Kim Jong-un into a position of leadership, perhaps as a figurehead, a puppet, a dupe, a symbol around which to rally the people, whatever, BUT this is by no means the done deal that we are being led to believe it is, as the South Korean, Japanese, and Western media are looking for evidence though which to prove that interpretation, even to the point of misleading us (in the free world) that the North Korean hoi polloi are being pushed to accept it.

    This will not likely be pushed onto the hoi polloi until it is on solid ground within the regime, which is a somewhat shaky prospect. It might happen, but it hasn’t happened yet. We will know when this has happened because it will be evident in the North Korean media and on regime paraphernalia, like the official portraiture and badges. This has not happened yet, which was a key element of the aforementioned link.

    Meanwhile, all this tabloidesque focus on palace intrigue (Kim Jongchol at an Eric Clapton concert, really?!) utterly ignores the real story that is going on, the Manchurianization of North Korea, whereby China is pushing the Pyongyang regime to accept Chinese-style reforms so as to stabilize the country by making it more prosperous and integrating it into Beijing’s own plans for what used to be called Manchuria.

    Kim Jong-un is not in charge and possibly never will be. Heck, given the events of the last few years, I’m not entirely sure Kim Jong-il himself is actually in charge, but that’s an issue for another post.

  4. Ah, geez. My comment is in moderation limbo. But I made it into a post.

    In a nutshell, I think the above is a fast-and-furious self-serving interpretation by the media and some “experts,” and I’m encouraged to see that Joshua himself is skeptical.

    I am not stubbornly refusing to accept the prospect that Kim Jong-un may someday take power; I’m only saying that the case has not yet been made. However, not only only am I willing to entertain the prospect, I have actually presented evidence that my working hypothesis may be no longer valid. No one really paid attention to this one, though.

  5. Actually, Kushibo, based on your longer comment, I don’t think we’re that far apart on this issue anymore. It’s apparent that someone (Kim Jong Il for one) is trying to set KJU up as his successor, but it’s not a “done deal” when there is so much uncertainty about who the king-makers will be 3-5 years from now.

  6. Joshua, I don’t know that we were actually ever that far apart on it. With the government slots the untested General Kim Jong-un has been given, it’s been clear at least since last October that he’s being pushed up by someone.

    However, what I take issue with is how the media, many experts, and even the government have not only accepted this uncritically, but they have also massaged recent events to fit an interpretation that the ascension is on the fast track. Cumulatively, I feel we are being misled.

    The track record is abominable. Kim Jong-il is not dead from pancreatic cancer (remember that one?), he is not immobile from a stroke, and Kim Jong-un is not 김정운. Yet think how confidently these were presented and how uncritically they were accepted.

    Kim Jong-il almost certainly had a stroke, and then the collective media (South Korean, Japanese, and Western) fell over themselves trying to report Kim Jong-il to death. Every little sign was an indicator of his imminent demise, and pictures that showed him walking around were deemed to be faux-toshop fakes.

    Yet it seems almost no one bothered to open up a medical manual or go to WebMD.com and see what actually happens with a minor stroke. Nothing related to his actual condition should have been surprising, but it turned out to be totally unexpected by a press and public that was sure he’d be dead by the first half of 2010.

    Even the article you cited in this post refers to Kim Jong-il as “ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.” I won’t take too much issue with the word ailing because technically it’s true. The guy is probably taking Coumadin cocktails several times a day, but the word ailing suggests he’s on a downward trend when in fact he seems to be recovering adequately and normally from the stroke. Indeed, he may be on an upward trend.

    The media should stick to reporting what they know and do a better job of separating fact from speculation, while removing their hopeful agenda from the equation. And we should call them on it.