May Both Sides Fight to the Last Man
The title was just too good not to steal from Glenn Reynolds. The Saddamists and nationalists in Iraq have gone on the warpath against al-Qaeda and its Iraqi followers, and have vowed to drive them out of Anbar, the epicenter of the insurgency. It all began when an al-Qaeda bombing killed 80 local residents:
Residents told Reuters on Monday at least three prominent figures on both sides were among those killed after local insurgent groups formed an alliance against al Qaeda, blaming it for massacring police recruits in Ramadi on January 5.
“There was a meeting right after the bombings,” one Ramadi resident familiar with the events said. “Tribal leaders and political figures gathered to form the Anbar Revolutionaries to fight al Qaeda in Anbar and force them to leave the province.
“Since then there has been all-out war between them,” said the resident in the capital of the sprawling western desert province of Anbar, speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals.
What’s particularly interesting is that Iraqi “nationalist” rebels took such exceptional umbrage to a bombing that targeted the recruiting of pro-government police. Unless someone can cite evidence to suggest that all of the police in Ramadi have been coopted by the “nationalist” insurgents, it sounds like the migration toward cooperation with the government has begun.
The bloodshed is the latest example of a trend U.S. military commanders and diplomats have been pointing to optimistically in recent months as a sign that some militants may be ready to pursue negotiable demands through the new Sunni Arab engagement in parliament after taking part in last month’s election.
On Thursday, three local Islamist groups around Ramadi — the 1920 Brigades, the Mujahideen Army and the Islamic Movement for Iraq’s Mujahideen — also met to distance themselves from their fellow Islamists in Qaeda, joining the shift against al Qaeda led by more secular, tribal and nationalist groups.
The pan-Arab Al Hayat newspaper quoted a statement from six Iraqi armed groups on Monday announcing they had united to form the “People’s Cell” to confront Zarqawi and preserve security in the Anbar province. The statement condemned “armed operations which target innocents” and affirmed “a halt to cooperation with al Qaeda.”
Both sides have distributed leaflets in the city of half a million claiming killings of opponents. “Qaeda announces the killing of someone in the Revolutionaries and then the others announce they have killed someone in Qaeda,” the resident said. Another resident following events closely said: “The conflict is now clear between the militant groups and al Qaeda; the Anbar Revolutionaries who were formed after the attacks say they want to eliminate al Qaeda from Anbar.”
This brings the United States tanalizingly close to its wet-dream scenario–Iraqi guerrillas rooting out al-Qaeda cadres, dispatching them to hell, hopefully taking plenty of losses in the process, and dragging their remnants back into the political process. There can be no compromise with al-Qaeda, but Ba’athists and nationalists are capable of getting over it and getting on with leading productive lives. The divide that has opened is between the reconcilable and the irreconcilable.
It’s obviously not the end. I continue to worry very much about controlling Shi’ite sectarianism without doing so undemocratically, and if the Sunni insurgency melts down, radical Shi’ites could feel emboldened to demand more. And of course, the Afghan rebels fought each other constantly and still managed to drive out the Soviets. But then again, the Soviets never let the Afghans vote, and by their votes, the most scientifically accurate measure of hearts and minds, the Iraqis have made significant progress toward investing themselves in the peaceful and democratic resolution of their differences.