Today’s Theater of the Absurd
Korean press reaction to Bush’s signing of the NKHRA here, and the Unification Minister’s futile two cents’ worth of regret here. Now, the GNP (Grand National Party, South Korea’s “conservative” opposition) wants to get into the act. So they finally found their voice, now that the song is half over. And it’s a dirge.
Meanwhile, the spigot on North Korean emigration has loosened another half-turn with only the second known successful defection by sea:
Two North Koreans defected to South Korea on Tuesday after crossing the western sea border aboard a small boat, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The two–one man and one woman–crossed the border around 9:30 a.m., the JCS said. They were handed over to maritime police for questioning, the JCS said.
This brings up more interesting questions about how the North Korean military can handle such challenges to its internal control. North Korea has two long, deeply indented coasts, and a fairly small navy. If there were to be a mass exodus by sea, something that’s obviously a possibility given the history of Viet Nam’s “boat people” exodus, how could North Korea stop it? If they suddenly had to make a major investment in patrol boats, could Hyundai afford the cost?
From the Chosun Ilbo, we get what must be the most masterful-yet-patently-fraudulent piece of political manipulation since the Dan Rather memos. I say this as someone who believes that China has imperial designs on Korea and will remain dangerous to its neighbors until the Communist Party loses its monopoly on that intangible quality that, as they say, comes from the barrel of a gun. But back to the the story. It’s an expose that purports to “leak” a Chinese plot to take over North Korea, and suggests that China started the whole Koguryo kerfuffle to lay a historical foundation for it:
If a pro-Chinese military faction grasps power following a collapse of the
regime, China intends to incorporate North Korea into its military
federation and eventually make it a subordinate state. The Northeast Asia
Project now in progress is aimed at accumulating a historical basis for it . . . .
My first reaction was violent blinking from my B.S. indicator lights. Would any Chinese academic in a quasi-diplomatic position would be so unguarded as to say such a thing? Well, just maybe, given the astonishing diplomatic blunder South Korea is now making by claiming that part of Manchuria is rightfully Korean territory (recipe for a disaster of historical proportions: first, piss the Americans off and drive them out, then start a boundary dispute with China!). The illustration alone–a collage showing a sinister dragon preparing to devour the globe and some fierce-looking PLA soldiers with fixed bayonets-was just too much. Priceless! Call me a Dan Rather if you must; I’m calling “fake yet accurate.” As for who (if anyone) I think made this up, you’re on your own there.
The accurate part is a no-brainer. China clearly has the most to lose if Korea unifies. It’s hard to say which major power a united Korea may choose for aligning itself, but it’s not likely to be China. China doesn’t want a well-armed democracy–perhaps one with nukes–diverting its attention away from other potential conflicts on its periphery, such as its border disputes with Russia, India, and Viet Nam, internal strife in Tibet and Xinjiang, its strategic competitions with Japan and the United States, and of course, Taiwan. Nor does China want any noteworthy examples of Communist regimes toppling before the very eyes of its downtrodden masses. China likes its North Korean buffer state, which usefully keeps the United States off balance in the event it makes a move on Taiwan. And Koguryo? It’s long been a part of China’s M.O. to revive ancient territorial claims or create fraudulent ones to justify territorial ambitions.
When you hear a Beijing academic say that your turf is “historically part of China,” you need to put in your order for some Aegis destroyers. Now.
Finally, some news is just too good to make up. South Korea’s Prime Minister invited the press along to his latest drinking binge, and revealed some distinctly North Korean attitudes toward media criticism. Now would be an excellent time to gulp down any liquids you may be drinking:
The prime minister, who was in an excitable state following his tough
forced-march itinerary and several beer-whiskey boilermakers, could not
suppress his flushed appearance. At first, he tried to avoid comment from
some reporters’ questions, but as tough questions began following one after
another, he could not hold back his excitement, and soon it was almost as if
he was the only one doing the talking.
The Prime Minister then tearfully embraced President Roh Moo-Hyun, playfully yet briskly rubbed his knuckles across the coyly smiling chief executive’s bald spot, and slurred, “You know what? You are really my friend. I mean that.”
A South Korean “Peace Studies” professor and expert on American politics had this to say about John Kerry, whom the author obviously admires, to the point of recommending he run for President:
Considering all these remarks, Kerry is likely to rely on the United Nations in dealing with any future crises in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Take a hypothetical situation in the Korean Peninsula: it is discovered that North Korea has experimented with nuclear weapons or exported nuclear materials to hostile nations or terrorist groups. Bush may make a surgical strike without consulting South Korea and the United Nations. Kerry is likely to try to solve the issue through multilateral forums, particularly the United Nations.
UPDATE:
Thanks to James Taranto of Wall Street’s Best of the Web for linking to this story and crediting your humble correspondent.