Agreed Framework III: A fisking
Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.
Historically, vague agreements are the agreements Pyongyang loves. One the one hand, it will put an implausibly narrow interpretation on its own concessions: “What you do mean this includes uranium?,” or, “We agreed to stop missile tests, not satellite launch vehicle tests!” On the other hand, it will interpret our own concessions broadly. Here’s a useful map of its demands to guide your understanding of what it will demand next. What’s clear is that Pyongyang will interpret the terms very differently from what Trump and his cabinet have said they would demand. Let’s count the ways.
President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.
Make no mistake: this language is a yuuge concession. We have given legitimacy to the man responsible for “crimes against humanity, arising from ”˜policies established at the highest level of State,’” including “extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions and other sexual violence, persecution on political, religious, racial and gender grounds, the forcible transfer of populations, the enforced disappearance of persons and the inhumane act of knowingly causing prolonged starvation.” And for a regime that values myths, symbols, and legitimacy more than a million lives, that will cost the people of both Koreas — and eventually, us — incalculably.
President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:
– The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
To North Korea, this will certainly mean the cessation of new sanctions designations, which means that the effect of the remaining sanctions will have a half-life of six months. As the world assumes without being told that sanctions aren’t being enforced anymore, the regime will generate new funds and set up new accounts. Bankers, and African government ministers, and various unethical profiteers will decide the heat is off and get lax with their compliance. That will mean Pyongyang scrapes together enough cash to keep nuking up, but not enough to develop economically in a way that reaches the majority of its people.
Received message last night from XI JINPING of China that his meeting with KIM JONG UN went very well and that KIM looks forward to his meeting with me. In the meantime, and unfortunately, maximum sanctions and pressure must be maintained at all cost!
” Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 28, 2018
We’ll know within days whether Trump’s promise was true. Shortly before the summit, the White House stopped a major new set of designations that was scheduled to be announced, attacking Pyongyang’s international money laundering networks. If you’ve read this link, you already know that sanctions relief is Pyongyang’s top demand. Unless American cargo planes start landing at Sunan Airport in the coming days to pick up missile parts and warheads, the Trump administration should announce those designations. If not, we’ll know for sure that we just got cucked again.
– The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
To North Korea, this will certainly mean an end to U.S.-South Korean exercises. You’ll see (update: sooner than expected, as it turned out). The next one is Ulchi Freedom Guardian, and it’s usually held in August. By then, South Korea’s left-wing government, empowered by the electoral gift that Trump has just given it, will be joining Pyongyang in demanding the cancellation of the exercise. As I’ve said before, Pyongyang will not demand our withdrawal until Moon Jae-in’s control of the press and suppression of his domestic critics has advanced to the point when no domestic backlash can stop it. I suspect that when the results are in from South Korea’s local elections today, we’ll have taken a giant leap toward that.
– Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
I hope someone explained to Trump that this means, at the very least, that the U.S. withdraws its guarantee to defend South Korea with its own nuclear weapons, and may actually mean that Pyongyang will only denuclearize when the U.S. does.
– The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
This is the sort of hostage diplomacy North Korea loves. It’s so easy to drag out for months, while long-bereaved family members ask their members of Congress to keep the “process” alive, and while Pyongyang gives little meaningful performance in any other regard.
Having acknowledged that the U.S.-DPRK summit”the first in history”was an epochal event of great significance in overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening up of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously. The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.-DPRK summit.
In other words, a long, drawn-out process that will probably end just as Agreed Framework II did.
President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.
Just bear in mind: to Pyongyang, film parodies of Kim Jong-un, White House meetings with North Korean defectors, and think tank conferences on human rights in North Korea are all incompatible with its idea of “security of the Korean Peninsula.” It sees words that are U.S. policy prerogatives, moral imperatives, and protected speech under the First Amendment as a threat to its security.
DONALD J. TRUMP
President of the United States of America
KIM JONG UN
Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
June 12, 2018
Sentosa Island
Singapore
Overall, what’s not in the agreement is much more significant than what is. There’s nothing about missiles, chemical or biological weapons, the artillery pointed at Seoul, or (naturally) human rights. There’s nothing about dismantling any object or facility. Nothing about an end to North Korea’s chemical weapons proliferation to Syria, or whatever its scientists and technicians are doing in Iran. Nothing about when the C-5s arrive at Sunan or what they will pick up. Nothing about the return of IAEA inspectors or where they’ll be allowed to go. Nothing about military exercises, missile defense, the status of U.S. forces, or the status of South Korea’s liberal democracy that those forces are there to protect. Nothing about what “relations” means and, critically, how they’re sequenced with disarmament. Nothing (perhaps thankfully) about sanctions, or a shared understanding that we’ll continue to enforce them until we’ve reached Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Disarmament.
Above all, Kim Jong-un made no concessions that are either specific or tangible enough to earn him a summit with the President of the United States. I’m obviously skeptical of what we gained from this. Whether Trump has, as he has said, learned from the mistakes of the past will be decided by what his administration says and does in the coming days. I’m not optimistic.
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Update 1: So, Trump says the U.S. will stop joint military exercises after all, and never told either the South Korean government or his own army before making that concession.
What did you expect from a Putin-loving fool like Trump? He’s easily flattered and has no spine to back up his bark. He’ll likely sell out South Korea to Kim if it means he can get a Trump Hotel in North Korea.
As with everything else this was all about Trump. He doesn’t give a fig about what has or will happen to the people of North Korea or South Korea for that matter. He would rather denounce the leader of one of our best allies in Canada as a liar and praise Kim to the skys. Trump only wishes that he could have absolute power like his old buddy Putin and his new BFF Kim. We must be vigilant here in the US to make sure that doesn’t happen to us.
Penny for John Bolton’s thoughts right now.
I expect one of two responses from Trump in regards to North Korea, whatever the details of North Korea’s behavior:
1) He’ll declare peace in our time, paying no attention to the flimsiness of the promises made or how untrustworthy the Kim dynasty has proven. He will show zero interest in human rights violations so long as the victims of those human rights violations don’t resonate with his base. He’ll make loud demands for a Noble peace prize at rallies, which his base will inevitably cheer.
When Kim inevitably interprets the deal in a way that makes it meaningless, he’ll declare no one could have foreseen it. Whether he then goes on to option 2 or recycles back to restarting option 1 will depend on how nice Kim is to him, personally, and not based on the dangers to the tens of millions of people living on the Korean peninsula.
2) War. And again, if war happens, it won’t be because of calculated risk but based on whether Kim has been nice or mean to Trump himself.
What I cannot imagine, in my wildest dreams, is a solution which involves a measured approach which takes into consideration long term goals. Instant gratification that gives his poll numbers a boost is the Trump way. Any other approach will require someone in his administration to do the heavy lifting on his behalf.
I didn’t expect anything different from Trump, who plays politics as theatre, rather than as reality. The real problem here, as other posts from Dr Tara O lay out in depressing detail, is that Trump’s ridiculous posturing has enabled the Moon government to move ahead with what appears to be its plan to Northify the South, and probably much more quickly than they dared to hope when they were first elected. But with an increasingly muzzled press, and a couple or three huge photo ops, Moon appears to have dodged any criticism, for the time being. I am deeply unhappy for all my friends in the South.