Chinese Dithering Seals Kim Jong Il’s Fate

With the Bush administration on the verge of giving up on diplomacy with North Korea and pursuing economic strangulation instead, one would suspect that China might finally engage in some serious diplomacy of its own to force North Korea back to the talks. Not so. Once again, the Chinese have sent emissaries to Pyongyang, and still North Korea refuses to engage in serious diplomacy. And how has China responded?

Several officials and diplomats noted that, while Mr. Pak was in Beijing last month, the Chinese government also agreed to grant North Korea significant new loan guarantees, though the details were not known.

Officials also pointed out that Chinese trade with North Korea has increased significantly over the last year. One Asian diplomat put the rate of increase at 40 percent.

China, which so recently demonstrated its ability to get its way in North Korea when it has the will, apparently lacks the will to stop North Korea from selling uranium to A.Q. Khan and his clients . . . as long as Taiwan isn’t one of them, presumably. China will continue to dither because it is (1) paralyzed by a corrupt and ossified leadership, (2) trying to extract concessions on Taiwan that it won’t get, and (3) fundamentally not displeased about all the trouble that North Korea is making for the United States.

The result? The United States should never have been particularly concerned with the interests of China’s Mandarin gerontocracy, but it will be less so now. It will give up on diplomacy, which depend in large part on China’s nonexistent good faith, and pursue regime change full-bore. The likely result will be that China will face the violent and chaotic collapse of the Communist ally on its border and a much-feared flood of refugees–some of them with weapons. So be it.