Buddhist NGO Warns of Return of Famine in North Korea

The South Korean NGO Good Friends, which has been well connected inside North Korea since the Great Famine, says that North Koreans are again starving to death in significant numbers, although the numbers do not (yet?) approach the death tolls of the 1990’s.

Good Friends, an organization helping North Korea opened a media information session on the 2nd about the North Korean food shortage and said that immediate food support was necessary as “around 10 people per city and county were starving to death daily.

Previously, controversy had arisen as Good Friends had reported recently that since last June there were people starving to death and recently in Hamheung the number of deaths from starvation had exceeded 300 people.

On this day, Good Friends announced that “there are 10 people starving to death in each city and county of North Pyungan Province, Yangkang Province, North and South Hamkyung as the number of casualties are increasing. In Hamheung, North Hamkyung, there are more than 300 people who starved to death and in each hospital in Chongjin, Ranam, Kyungseong, Uhrang, Buryeong, Kilju and Myungcheon there are 3-4 people who starve to death daily.

In addition, [Good Friends] asserted that “there is an increase in the number of people who commit suicide and the number of households in which the entire family turn to pickpocket and sell their own house. There is a possibility that the pains of 10 years ago will repeat.   [Daily NK]

Typically enough, the regime’s response to the problem has consisted mainly of ordering people not to talk about it.  The Daily NK reports that the control of information continues to be so effective that people still only know of starvation deaths among their close neighbors.

Despite the obvious problems with the quality of our information, there is more evidence that large-scale famine has not returned than evidence that it has.  Refugees  aren’t reporting  a serious deterioration of the food situation, and food prices have generally been stable.  It’s possible that a small-scale famine  is claiming the have-nots,  those who are starving can’t afford to buy food at any price.  It’s also possible that 10 starvation deaths per day has been  a relatively normal occurrence in those parts of North Korea for the last decade, and that not much has changed. 

If wide-scale famine returns, people will begin to sell their homes and possessions and take to the roads in large numbers,  there will be  drastic fluctuations  in food prices, people will pre-harvest immature crops,  and  farmers will butcher their draft animals.  I’ve been watching for those signs and haven’t seen them.  For what it’s worth, the World Food Program, whose limited access the North Koreans severely limited last year, at least admits that it doesn’t have enough access  to  information to say whether the Good Friends report  is true, either. 

Meanwhile, a report from a U.N. aid agency claims that infant mortality in North Korea has more than doubled in the last decade, which happens to be  the decade since the arrival of massive food aid from the  World Food ended the worst of the Great Famine.  I can think of two ways to explain why there would be higher infant mortality figures despite the arrival of more food aid.  One is that the figures are unreliable and based on incomplete or manipulated information.  Another is that the aid that did arrive was distributed so unequally that the kids in disfavored political classes were no less hungry.

See also:  

*   North Korea’s latest threat to walk away from AF 2.0 is our annual military exercises with South Korea.  I posit that North Korea has run out of concessions it’s willing to make —  other than  releasing a few abductees for the right price — but it has made significant gains on money laundering, terrorism, and has pretty much  buried UNSCR 1695 and 1718.  They’ll go along for the ride as long as they think they can keep making gains at no cost to themselves.

*   The Hand Not Shaken:   I wonder how strongly even  Chris Hill would disagree:

The lead US negotiator on North Korea appeared to show some lingering frustration with Pyongyang on Thursday when he refused a handshake from the reclusive state’s new foreign minister.

North Korea’s Pak Ui-Chun was seen offering his hand to US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill at the annual Asian security summit here, but Hill snubbed the foreign minister and walked away.  Hill, who had said a day earlier that the North Korean disarmament process was “on track,” was apparently miffed by Pak’s statement at the closed-door ASEAN Regional Forum on Thursday.

“I found it sometimes a little harsh, to be frank,” Hill told reporters, while declining to give any details.  [AFP]