Defections from North Korea to South Rose in 2008

The Chosun Ilbo reports that defections from North Korea rose 10% in 2008 compared to 2007. This may or may not tell us anything about economic or political conditions in the North as opposed to last year. The number of new arrivals in South Korea is a small trickle from a vast reserve of North Koreans hiding in China — estimates vary from 50,000 to 300,000.

Not all of the new arrivals in the South are necessarily recent escapees, given China’s brutal pre-Olympic crackdown. More likely, the higher number reflects the South Korean government’s new modicum of compassion, its willingness to let a few more in … notwithstanding a lot of hollow, shallow, and disingenuous “we are one” talk on the Korean Street.

What’s equally notable is who is defecting, and how. The regime probably succeeded in deterring a major exodus with a crackdown on defections that included nearly a thousand known public executions and the non-public mass execution of 22 refugees sent back by the South after their successful seaborne defection. Recently, however, four more North Koreans made it to the South in a small wooden boat.

Military defections are not entirely new, either. A rash of defections among border guards was reported in late 2006, along the country’s border with China. Last year, however, there were at least two rare military defections through the DMZ. One sergeant who defected in October reported that food supplies in his front-line unit were strained.

“The man is in good health,” said a spokeswoman at the spy agency, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing an agency policy. “We are investigating his background and motive. But he told us that he defected to the South because he was fed up with the North Korean regime and worried about his future after his application for a school was rejected.”

She gave no further details. But another government official who also spoke anonymously said the defector was believed to be an army sergeant and crossed the border on Sunday.

Almost all the defectors from the North enter the South through China, and a defection through the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas is extremely rare. In the past decade, only a few North Koreans are believed to have defected through the buffer zone, which is sealed by barbed wire fences and mined fields. [IHT, Choe Sang-Hun]

In April, a commissioned officer also defected. This Daily NK report corroborates reports of discontent in the North Korean military, although morale probably varies significantly from unit to unit:

“Not just the soldiers but the officers are also discontent”¦ In the army, soldiers are advised not to have conversation in groups larger than two. If more than two start talking they always end up criticizing the state. [….]

During an interview with NKnet, a former North Korean People’s Army officer who defected to China described the hopeless and desperate lives of North Koreans. “This year, there were some people who starved to death even in Pyongyang where I served, let alone countryside”¦ There is no food distribution. The situation in [North] Korea is hopeless so I decided to defect. [….]

“Although there were no [military] deaths due to starvation, many died from diseases after suffering malnutrition in the army hospital”¦ When I was in the army, 30 to 40 out of 120 soldiers of a company were diagnosed as malnourished. This year’s food distribution was again reduced because of last year’s flood and even more soldiers will suffer from malnourishment.

Despite the destitute food situation, barracks had electricity 18 hours a day and every soldier had a bed and a locker, NK In & Out reported. There was even a DVD player in each soldiers barrack which was used for educational purposes. But despite education on morality soldiers continue to rob civilians due to lack of food distribution. “Because of the tenuous food situation, soldiers are always angry and desperate. So it is very hard to control them. [Daily NK]

A few isolated cases may not be enough to suggest that discontent is rising, but the rising refugee flow certainly does not suggest that North Koreans’ faith in the regime is on the mend, either. The greater questions are just what alternative North Koreans see to the steadily declining status quo, and just what they think they can do about it. If this leads to an uprising, the trigger will be something spontaneous. The critical question will be whether the regime succeeds in containing it.

Related: If North Korea can call for an uprising against the South Korean government, why would the converse be beyond the diplomatic pale? Is it just that someone might actually be miserable and desperate enough to heed? Or is it just another case of North Korea being excused from standards that the rest of the world is expected to follow?