Home  >  Missiles

We Have Lift-Off

I didn’t think President Lee would actually go through with this. Although I’m not sure this launch is a wise move in the broader context of attempts to disarm the North Koreans — who will seize on this to justify their own banned program — it’s almost gratifying to see a South Korean president so unconcerned about what North Korea says. And while I reject most of the comparisons to the North Korean Taepodong II launch last spring, both launches no doubt had domestic political motives, and in both cases, the satellites failed to enter orbit.

Feel free to insert your own innuendo in the comments section.

South Korea isn’t banned from developing or using missile technology. The North is limited by no less than three such resolutions — 1695, 1718, and 1874 (see sidebar; scroll down).

0Shares

5 Responses

  3. I’m neutral on this. I think a problem we have dealing with a nation like North Korea, or in assessing something like this from South Korea, is we just don’t have the North Korean-thug mentality. Our initial instinct, I think in the majority, is to see SK’s move as at least a little wrongheaded: as a provocation that didn’t need to take place, because Japan, the US, or even China could launch the thing for Seoul without provoking the North.

    And provoking is bad……that is the unspoken, assumed thought…

    But maybe it isn’t always bad?

    I am not saying this is the plan, but it is a possibility, and even if it isn’t the plan, it could be how it works: —- I’m talking about the Reagan Soviet example.

    The general public knows North Korea is on its last leg. It might hop on that leg for another 3 decades. It might collapse tomorrow. But we know it is terrible weak. We did not know that about the Soviet Union. Maybe the top policy people in the government and advisers recognized it. The general population did not…

    But, Reagan went for forms of confrontation that helped speed up the slacking arms race, and that in part brought the Soviet Union to collapse.

    By shooting up this missile, Lee’s government is saying, “Well do what we think is good for us even if Pyongyang pitches a hissyfit. If they don’t like it, let them do something about it.”

    He has reason to believe the North won’t go actually nuts about it. It is highly unlikely to lead to a military confrontation, because Pyongyang knows how weak it is. It might do provocative things, but it already does provocative things any time it wants attention or money.

    But, Lee’s move could also trouble an already super paranoid regime, and the military first policy might pick up renewed steam, and that might lead to a repeat of the Soviet collapse…

    I have absolutely no reason to believe that that is what is going on Lee’s mind. But, it could be a plan or it could turn out to be a result….