Open Radio: China Prepares N. Korea Occupation Force
Open Radio, one of the broadcasting services that edits the reports of North Koreans and broadcasts them back into their homeland, claims that the force is being composed from ethnic Koreans in China:
According to the source, Shenyang and Jangchoon districts have special force with a size of a brigade. There is also a force composed only of Korean-Chinese, while the size of this force has not been confirmed. These forces were created in order to respond to any sudden eruption on the Korean peninsula, and have been receiving trainings.
According to a South Korean security expert, brigades #190 with 3,000 soldiers near Shenyang, and it is likely to be dispatched in case of any disruption in North Korea. In fact, brigade #190 has done a training in inner Mongolia. (Note 1)
Additionally, the security expert said the role of special force composed of Korean-Chinese will conduct pacification work to stabilize the North Koreans within North Korea. In Jangchoon district, there is a brigade of armed police #117, and this brigade will work for internal security and control refugees. [Open Radio]
Before we declare the birth of the Chosen Autonomous Zone, I’d just direct your attention to this RAND Corporation study that estimated that South Korea would need to send in 440,000 troops to restore order in North Korea after regime collapse. That number might adjust up or down substantially, depending on the degree to which North Koreans accept or reject an occupying force. A few brigades — a brigade is typically about 3,000 troops — won’t be enough to do more than occupy a few strategic cities on or near the border — Sinuiju, Hoeryong, and the ports of Unggi and Rajin.
Even so, I can see the camel’s nose entering the tent here. This is the sort of thing America should be moving to preempt with careful statements of opposition, good diplomacy, and above all, by accelerating our efforts to form an underground network of like-minded North Koreans who don’t want the division of their country perpetuated. It should be our clear policy that post-Kim Jong Il should be reintegrated with South Korea under a democratic system, and if putting China at ease requires us to say that we have no ambitions to occupy the North, so be it. And with Kim Jong Il raising the ante against us, I assure you that this sort of statement will do no harm to the strength of our bargaining position with North Korea.
I see only two ways to deter China from occupying the North. One is a threat of war with America or South Korea, which just isn’t worth risking. The second is the distinct possibility that North Koreans will start ambushing their convoys with Claymore mines and RPG-2’s. That’s a risk that America can accept, but which would pose prohibitive risks for China’s stability. Information flows too freely in China today for it to stifle dissent against an unpopular foreign war. The formation of such a network would be mostly spontaneous if North Koreans could communicate freely with each other, and with the rest of the world. Could this be done? Yes, if we’re willing to flood North Korea with small, hand-held satellite phones with cameras, a text feature to allow the user to read news reports, and international dialing capability.
If the North Korean people oppose a Chinese invasion, we and the south should aid them, but we should not do any of the fighting. The north must have plenty of weapons in their arsenals, so maybe we wouldn’t have to send much more than satellite phones.
But it would be better if the Chinese could understand that a unified, democratic Korea would be a better neighbor than a sullen, occupied North Korea. So maybe they’d be wise enough to stay out. They don’t really need more of the kind of trouble they already have with the Uighurs and Tibetans.
Well said, Joshua. I’ve thought many of the same things here. I shall link to this later in a future post I’m writing.
In the meantime, I think the correct term would be Inner Chaoxian Autonomous Region, Ã la Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
This probably isn’t thinking I’ll be proud of weeks from now. I should probably feel worse about the chance of it happening, but for certain reasons, I can’t work up much attention to the chance China will make a move to pretty much take over NK. Why?
For the most part, 2 reasons: 1. It could prevent the worser case scenarios that could happen with the collapse and 2. China will fail. What can happen as it fails – and how long this can prolong the North Korean people’s suffering is what makes me feel somewhat shameful for counting on China’s failure, but I can’t prevent Beijing from making the effort, and I can’t picture the US caring enough to stand a good chance of preventing Beijing from doing it, so if it happens, at least it will re-teach China that pumping it’s national wealth into NK to build it up is a waste of many resources for a communist or semi-communist state….
And once China fails and decides to stop wasting its wealth, it will turn to the US and the world, and then we will have a better chance of setting NK on a better path toward getting itself going and joining the world community…
Hopefully, when collapse comes, it will work out that China doesn’t try its hand in keeping NK afloat under its control by itself or that its effort is limited by what the US, SK, and/or Japan does, and NK will begin true reconstruction soon after collapse….
It can go any number of ways……
Who would want to take over the dirt poor, resource-free nation?
Someone who wants a dirt-poor, resource-rich buffer state, a few strategic ports, and the potential for some territorial expansion, that’s who.
What OFK said and I’d add – a nation that wants to function as a superpower which calls for power-projection, not contraction……Such a nation would feel like sitting on the sidelines is the very last thing that should happen….
Why would China want to take over North Korea? To keep North Korea under communist control. Plus, they don’t want our troops closer to them, though the way things are now I don’t know why they are afraid of us. South Korea and us do need to step up our counter proganda in North Korea. I don’t think we should be afraid to go to war with China over North Korea if necessnary.
I agree. We should not be afraid to go to war with China over North Korea – in fact, this may be our most viable alternative, given the way things are now.