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October 30, 2006

Sucking Sound, Part 2

Foreign capital continues to flee South Korea, and this time, the trend is far more pronounced than the last time I’d blogged about it. Foreign investors’ exit from South Korea is accelerating amid worries over a worsening business climate here and the economy’s falling growth potential, the central bank said Sunday.  According to the Bank of Korea, foreign direct investment in Asia’s fourth-largest economy reached a mere US$790 million in the first nine months of this year, about one-fourth of...
Categories NK Economics
October 27, 2006

China-N. Korea Trade: Business as Usual

I didn’t get terribly excited about initial reports that China wouldn’t enforce 1718 in good faith, because I don’t frankly care much what they say, but rather, what they do.  Sounds like we have our answer, courtesy of the N.Y. Times: Truckers carrying goods into North Korea across the sludge-colored Tumen River say inspections are unchanged on the Chinese side. Customs agents rarely open boxes here or at two other border crossings in this mountainous region, truckers and private transport...
Categories "United" Nations/China & Korea/NK Economics
October 26, 2006

The Death of an Alliance, Part 57: Time to End the Screen Quota

I’m about to go all screedy  about this, but I  can be  brief, because  Robert Koehler has pretty much said everything I’d have said anyway.   I generally write  “DOA” posts after an action by  either  government documents some new low in bilateral relations.  The government isn’t responsible for the content of what Korea’s notoriously militant film industry makes, but it wasn’t responsible for the content of “Yoduk Story,” either.   So on one hand,  fictionalized movies about  No Gun Ri  or formaldehyde...
Categories Anti-Americanism/Korean Society/NK Economics
October 19, 2006

The Death of an Alliance, Part 56

At the end of this post, there is big news, but  if I told you now, I couldn’t wring the last full measure of absurdity out of  it.  So please stick with me here.  I have  accused the South Korean government of promoting anti-Americanism.  When I do, I speak of things like  this: The chief presidential secretary for security Song Min-soon on Wednesday said South Korea would be the greatest victim in a war on the peninsula due to the...
Categories An Alliance?/Anti-Americanism/Appeasement/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea/WMD/WTF?
October 19, 2006

Interview: L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation

Gordon Flake (bio)  is two things that make his opinions interesting and valuable to me.  First, he’s a fluent Korean speaker, and those of us who aren’t are always at some disadvantage to those who do when we are gathering the facts we process into our views.  Second — and Gordon may not agree with this characterization — his views  strike me as classically  liberal. His views are probably more independent and less jaundiced by partisan bias or  ambitions  than...
Categories An Alliance?/Anti-Americanism/Appeasement/Blogs & Blogging/Famine & Food Aid/Google Earth/Human Rights/Korean Politics/Korean Society/Media Criticism/NK Economics/Proliferation/Refugees/U.S. & Korea/Washington Views
October 17, 2006

Of Tin-Pot Crises, and Real Ones

U.N. Resolution 1695, passed after North Korea’s missile tests, demanded that countries exercise “vigilance” to be certain that their money wasn’t paying for more missiles.  South Korea adopted a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach and continued as if nothing had changed.  It even had another illegal payments-to-North Korea  kerfuffle (“I apologize for the illegal remittance issue, which was caused by mismatch between law and reality” — a real classic).  The focii of all these legal and ethical evasions are Kumgang...
Categories "United" Nations/Appeasement/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea/WMD
October 14, 2006

U.N. Security Council Resolution Takes Shape Passes Resolution 1718

Update: Too good to be true? Looks like the vote will be delayed … probably so that the Chinese and Russians can water this thing down. —– Update 2:   On again.   Supposedly, there will be a vote today. —– Updated 3:   It passed; analysis below, and the full text at the bottom of this post.   Naturally, the North Korean delegate walked out and denounced everyone for being “gangster-like. This is what the psychologists refer to as “projection.” ...
Categories "United" Nations/NK Economics/NK Military/WMD
October 13, 2006

Nuke Test Roundup

*   The Japanese government has approved a total ban on trade with North Korea, and the ban has already taken effect.  The BBC has a showing the last boat carrying used bicycles and refrigerators back to North Korea, to be given as rewards to loyal party members.  *   Gordon Cucullu, writing  at Front Page Magazine, talks about cutting China’s support to North Korea; you might want to read this first, however. *   The New York Times talks...
Categories China & Korea/Japan & Korea/NK Economics/WMD
October 11, 2006

Kim Jong Il Unplugged, Part 12

“If the U.S. keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard it as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures,” the North’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. Well, what on earth did they expect?  Applause?  Mind you, they still have the chutzpah to say they want to disarm, but the last time they said that was just hours before their alleged nuke test.  Meanwhile,...
Categories China & Korea/Japan & Korea/NK Economics/WMD
October 10, 2006

U.S. to Propose Arms Embargo on North Korea

I’d proposed it two days before July’s missile tests, because of the rising danger of another preventable famine, but  it now looks as if John Bolton is circulating  this concept  as part of what he’d tried to get from the U.N. after the July missile tests: The United States circulated a draft U.N. resolution late Monday that would condemn North Korea’s nuclear test and impose tough sanctions on the reclusive communist nation for Pyongyang’s “flagrant disregard” of the Security Council’s...
Categories "United" Nations/China/China & Korea/Famine & Food Aid/Money Laundering/NK Economics/WMD
October 9, 2006

N. Korea Claims ‘Successful’ Nuclear Test

Update 3: Welcome, Michelle Malkin readers! —– From the Washington Post: SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country’s official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site. “The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the [sic] our military and people,” KCNA said. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at...
Categories Diplomacy/NK Economics/NK Military/WMD
October 6, 2006

Marcus Noland on the Economic Implications of Nuke Test

[Update:   link fixed, thanks!]   Last night, just before “Yoduk Story” (my not-a-review  post here), I met several of the people often quoted and cited in these pages, including Ambassadors Vershbow and Lefkowitz, but also the scholar and economist Marcus Noland, someone whose work I’ve long admired for its rigor, research, and objectivity.  This morning, Mr. Noland kindly forwarded two of his recent articles:  “The Economic Implications of a North Korean Nuclear Test,” and “The Economic Implications of a...
Categories NK Economics/WMD
October 1, 2006

Sucking Sound

Not a R.A.I.N. concert.  Even worse:  capital flight. The government is seeking to prevent massive capital flight led by U.K. and U.S. investors. In all, US$9.264 billion foreign investors had in stocks, bonds and dividends here left the country between the beginning of this year and Aug. 11, the most since the stock market was opened to foreign investors in 1992. This is especially worrisome as the foreign funds are fleeing the country for good without re-investing here after they...
Categories NK Economics
September 23, 2006

Waiting for the Ceausescu Moment

History has a strange habit of pivoting on the tempers and moods of ordinary people whom it swallows and forgets, and one of those people is the first angry man in a crowd of thousands in Bucharest, on December 20, 1989.  For some reason, he acted on his urge to shout  blasphemous words at  Europe’s most dreaded tryant.  There were others in that crowd whose anger overcame their fear, and those others also shouted out their discontent.  The tyrant failed...
Categories Democracy/NK Economics/Resistance
September 22, 2006

Kim Jong Il Unplugged, Part 11: Eyes on Seoul

Green eyeshades are turning toward Seoul, Kaesong, and Kumgang.  If you think things were bad before, this is where U.S.-Korea relations will be severely tested.  The U.S. Treasury Department isn’t going to put up with Seoul acting as Kim Jong Il’s financier for long, and  with the  likely exceptions of some shady  Russian banks  and whatever China is secretly providing at the state-to-state level, South Korea is Kim Jong Il’s last cash cow. Kumgang That poll yesterday — the one...
Categories Appeasement/Money Laundering/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea
September 21, 2006

Shinze Abe Elected as Leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party

And it’s more bad news for Kim Jong Il: Mr. Abe, a conservative, is also well known for his tough stance toward Pyongyang. He became interested in the issue of Japanese citizens abducted to North Korea in 1988 and began investigating the kidnappings when he was first elected to the Diet in 1993. After a decade of effort by Tokyo, Pyongyang admitted to the kidnappings in 2002, and Mr. Abe rocketed into political prominence. Newspaper reports have suggested that Abe,...
Categories Japan & Korea/Korean History/NK Economics
September 19, 2006

North Korea’s Growth Industry: Train Wrecks

Question: What self-respecting tyrannical mass-murderer would admit that he rules a country that’s completely broken? Answer: one that really, really needs the insurance money, even if it’s from a spate of horrific and previously undisclosed disasters: One of the incidents was the sinking of a passenger ship traveling between Wonsan and Heungnam, both east-coast ports. Half of the ship’s 200 passengers lost their lives, Minjok reportedly told its reinsurers. Industry officials here estimated that the insurance payment would be in...
Categories Inside NK/NK Economics
September 19, 2006

Kim Jong Il Unplugged, Part 10: The First Shoe Drops

Japan and Australia have imposed sanctions on a series of the companies Kim Jong Il uses to collect foreign currency and dual-use items. In Japan’s case, this includes shutting off a substantial income source for the North: cash remittances from ethnic Koreans in Japan: The sanctions will effectively freeze North Korea’s assets in Japan by banning withdrawals and overseas remittances from the targets’ accounts in Japanese banks. This is about as robust an option as I had predicted here, although...
Categories Money Laundering/NK Economics/WMD