November 13, 2007

Korean Election Update: Lessers Versus Evils

Just over a month before South Korean presidential election, Lee Hoi Chang has announced that he’s  running as an independent candidate.  I have now seen it all.   So can he win?  Hell if I know.  To an observer of long American political campaigns, it’s hard to see how anyone could  enter  a race so late and have a chance of winning it, but this most definitely is not American politics.  Korean politics is famously mercurial; it’s about as exact, empirical,...
Categories Korean Politics
November 9, 2007

Walking the Road to Hell With the Eugene Bell Foundation

I want to begin this post with a correction.   On  October 29th, commenter  Marion Spina, referring to the  seventh “See Also” item in this post,  said: Question on your post: “I’m suspicious of the Eugene Bell foundation, because it recently received a “frienship” medal from the North Korean government, and because you don’t win Kim Jong Il’s friendship by asking hard questions and without paying for it. Based on this document, I infer that the Bell foundation is having some...
Categories Famine & Food Aid
October 29, 2007

There Is Such a Thing as ‘Good’ Engagement

If you’re reading this, you’re bearing with me despite the light blogging of late.  Thank you.  I make a habit of not talking about my work here, but suffice to say that it carries significant responsibilities that sometimes leave no time and energy for other things.  At times like these, when there is very little time left over, I owe that time to my family.  Thank you again for your understanding,  for continuing to stop by, and for your e-mails. ...
Categories Deprogramming/Six-Party Talks
October 23, 2007

Links for 23 Oct 07

* John Bolton is now actively lobbying against Agreed Framework 2.0, drawing dozens of GOP congressmen  to speeches he’s giving to influential policy groups (ht: Evan).  His efforts appear to have gained new traction with the Syria revelations, and the Administration’s inordinate secrecy from Congress about those revelations probably isn’t doing any good for congressional relations (but may be fueling suspicions).  Yes, Bolton probably suspects that his enemies in the State Department torpedoed his confirmation, and he probably holds a...
Categories Anju Links
October 21, 2007

The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il

[Updated below]   We  often hear reports that China has curtailed or cut aid to the North Korean regime.  I’ve usually been skeptical of those reports because I believe that Kim Jong Il’s arch-patron  China wants us to believe that it’s being “helpful” in disarming North Korea of its nuclear programs, but actually considers  it a useful distraction  for  American power in the region.  Now,  a new report  claims that China is holding up cross-border rail traffic to the North  over...
Categories China & Korea/Diplomacy/Famine & Food Aid/Kim Jong Il/NK Economics
October 20, 2007

Fighting Hard Power With Soft: Sanctions, Iran, and Burma

Burma’s generals, confident that they have reestablished the rule of terror, have just relaxed their  curfews and bans on public assemblies.  It’s exceedingly depressing to write about yet another ongoing atrocity that no one has the courage or vision to really fight, and Burma is another of those atrocities.  If the Administration thinks that modest sanctions like these will end the slaughter, it’s fooling no one: The president directed the government to freeze any U.S.-controlled assets held by 11 senior...
Categories Iran/Southeast Asia/Uncategorized
October 15, 2007

Links for 15 Oct 07

*   North Korea is  building or repairing the fences around its nuclear test site in the northeast.   What  reports like these don’t mention, however, is that directly to the northeast of that test site lies  Camp 16, one of North Korea’s more horrendous concentration camps.  And  if the  Daily NK’s December 2006  report of a mass escape is true, it might be that the North Koreans are actually repairing the camp’s fences, not the test sites.  Hopefully, an intrepid...
Categories Anju Links
October 14, 2007

NYT: It Was a Reactor

Israel’s air attack on Syria last month was directed against a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, apparently modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons fuel, according to American and foreign officials with access to the intelligence reports.  [N.Y. Times, David Sanger and Mark Mazzetti] Even among other journalists who cover this story and the White House, Sanger is well known for having good sources...
Categories Six-Party Talks
October 12, 2007

Links for 12 Oct 07

*   Irrational Exhuberance, via the AFP’s P. Parameswaran:  “A team of US experts left Tuesday for North Korea to disable the hardline communist state’s nuclear weapons arsenal in a crucial phase of a six-nation disarmament pact.”  Mr. Parameswaran is a good enough fellow, but  the first sentence of his  report is absolutely false.  Not only are U.S. experts not on their way to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, North Korea has yet to declare what, specifically, that arsenal consists...
Categories Anju Links
October 11, 2007

Summit Perceptions

So what will be the enduring  effect of the meeting between Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Jong Il?  I could speculate, but others have already done that.  Simply read the divergent brands and ask yourself:  who is better informed and grounded in reality:  a semi-random sampling of ordinary  North Koreans, or a New York Times reporter?  (Big hint:  it’s Norimitsu Oniishi, who is almost always over his head when he strays beyond culture and fluff stories).   I’ll just observe that...
Categories Appeasement/Inside NK/Korean Politics
October 9, 2007

The Last Chance

Does this sound like a country that’s made the decision to give up its nuclear arsenal? The North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper ran a lengthy editorial to mark the anniversary, imploring the poverty-stricken population of 23 million to rally around Kim, the official Korean Central News Agency said. “Never forgettable are acclamations of October, 2006, when we shouted hurrah again and again at the top of our voices in admiration of General Kim Jong Il who unfolded an eternally clear...
Categories Six-Party Talks
October 7, 2007

Who Cares About Politicizing Intelligence Now?

Washington was plunged into sleepy apathy this week as ABC News reported that the  Bush Administration  ingored, then  failed to act on intelligence about  nuclear proliferation and potential terrorism that could have endangered  millions of lives.  The report claims that the Secretary of State and the President  received credible reports that North Korea transferred nuclear technology to Syria,  but suppressed the information  to save a troubled diplomatic deal, and even  sought to tip  the Syrians off.  The latest report follows...
Categories Appeasement/Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks
October 3, 2007

Define “All”

Update:   A reader was kind enough to send a copy of the latest six-party joint statement, which you can read here.   Some of the key langugage: 2. The DPRK agreed to provide a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs in accordance with the February 13 agreement by 31 December 2007. A deadline.  I like deadlines.  But  this adds no clarity  that nuclear “programs” means nuclear “weapons,” and nothing about inspection or verification beyond Yongbyon. 3. The...
Categories Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks
September 24, 2007

The Rangoon Autumn

Updates below: 9/21:   Original post, background of the protests.  9/22:  Monks  march to  Aung San Suu Syi’s home in record downpour; 10,000 protest in Mandalay. 9/23:  Protests hit 8 cities; Rangoon turnout at 20,000; World leaders speak out against use of force to quell protests, but the U.N. is silent. 9/24:  Rangoon protests draw 100,000; Their hold on power seriously threatened, junta generals threaten to use force; Bush  to announce new sanctions  before U.N. General Assembly; Burmese entertainers join the opposition....
Categories Democracy/Southeast Asia
September 24, 2007

Some USFK Stats and History

A few days ago, a reader asked me how much the presence of the USFK cost American taxpayers.  This is a research project I’ve taken on before, only to be confronted by few answers from credible sources.  You’re about to see what I mean here. Writing for the Nautilus Institute, Selig Harrison claimed in 2001 that the annual cost was $42 billion per year.   Another Nautilus alum,  Doug Bandow, claimed in his recent Korea book  that withdrawing from the...
Categories An Alliance?/History/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military
September 22, 2007

Sunday Times: Israelis Seized N. Korean ‘Nuclear Material’ in Syria

I wonder how Chris Hill is going to talk his way out of this one: Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem. The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say. They confirmed that samples taken from Syria...
Categories Axis of Evil/Proliferation/Six-Party Talks
September 20, 2007

We must be smoking what they’re growing

North Korea was dropped from the U.S. list of countries producing illicit drugs, a sign of further relief of tensions between the two countries. “North Korea is not affecting the United States as much as the requirements on the list,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christy McCampbell said on Sept. 17 in Washington, according to a transcript of her speech on the State Department Web site.  [Bloomberg] And that decision is based on what?  On  absolutely nothing but the interests...
Categories Appeasement/Axis of Evil/Drugs & N Korea/Six-Party Talks
September 19, 2007

Have Fun Spending That $20 Million in Hell

Mullah Abdullah Jan, the Taliban commander who led the kidnappings of 23 Korean hostages in Afghanistan, was killed in an air strike by U.S. forces.  U.S. forces launched an airstrike on a house in Ghazni province where a council of Taliban commanders was meeting on Monday night, the Associated Press reported.  Twelve Taliban leaders were killed including Abdullah, the commander of Qarabagh district in Ghazni, AP said on Tuesday, citing Ghazni provincial police chief Ali Shah Ahmadzai. Abdullah was believed...
Categories Islam/Terrorism/Iraq